Tag: the economy

The Party of Trump

Because I am a glutton for punishment, I watched the GOP debate last night. It was much more “substantive” with less personal attacks. But “substantive” is relative term when Donald Trump is on the stage. Debating Trump on substance is like debating a goldfish: by the time he gets to the end of an answer, he’s forgotten what he said at the beginning. He said Iraq was a mistake but he would send more tens of thousands of troops to hit ISIS. He bashed Democrats for doing nothing about Social Security and then promised not to touch Social Security. He called the Tiananmen Square protests “riots” and refused to denounce violence at his own rallies.

But I’m getting into the weeds. The thing that really jumped out from last night debate was this: the GOP is becoming the Party of Trump, regardless of whether he’s the actual nominee or not.

For example: all the candidates on stage inveighed against free trade. The GOP used to understand that free trade was good for this country. Ted Cruz occasionally tried to make that point again: that the US has few trade barriers and that our trade deals mostly open markets for us in other countries. But the Sanders-Trump axis has latched onto American’s discontent with the economy and persuaded them that free trade is the name of their pain and the reason jobs have gone away.

It isn’t. Most of our manufacturing job losses are because of automation. Unless Donald Trump plans to physically rip robots out of factory floors — not completely impossible — that’s not changing. The real way to boost the job market in America is to make it easier to do business in America. Simplify regulations that destroy hundreds of billions of dollars in productivity and millions of jobs. Overhaul the corporate tax code that is equally damaging. Other countries are doing this; we’re going in the opposite direction, piling regulation upon regulation and tax code upon tax code. End that. Make America a place where it’s easy to do business. And corporations will stampede to do business here.

Trade tariffs are not “protection”. They’re a tax. They make everything we buy more expensive and don’t relocate a single job into this country. But the GOP has abandoned this.

And that was just one issue. On immigration, on foreign policy, on torture, on criminal justice, all the candidates came off as Trump Lite. That’s a mistake. If the voters have a choice between Trump and Trump-Lite, they will go with Trump. But no one on that stage had the gravitas to push back against Trumpism.

Between these two parties, I am convinced that, regardless of who wins the election, we are headed for another lost economic decade. No one outside of Paul Ryan seems to understand how hard it is to do business in this country and how many millions of jobs and billions in wages our tax and regulatory system destroy. No one wants to stand against anti-immigrant and anti-trade hysteria. No one seems to understand that getting more involved in the Middle East is a mistake. No one seems to understand or care about the pending budget crisis. We are caught between one party that wants to blow up the debt with tax cuts and spending and another that wants to blow it up with more spending and more spending.

Maybe the GOP can recover if someone manages to beat Trump. But that’s looking less and less likely. Look, I’m tired and I’m getting over a cold. Maybe I’m being too pessimistic. But watching last night’s debate, desperately hoping to see something to hpoe for after the big government dumpster fire that was the last Democratic debate, I felt like I looked into the abyss. And the abyss tried to sell me steaks.

Update: Rubio’s people today are urging their voters in Ohio to support Kasich so that Trump won’t win Ohio. Kasich (and Cruz) have declined to reciprocate.

I must say, this really impresses me. Rubio is putting the party and the country ahead of himself. Bravo.

The State of the Campaign

Here’s the thing that struck me as I read Obama’s State of the Union address: very little of this is going to happen. There is no way he will get even 10% of his agenda through a Republican House. Most of it would not even go through a Democratic House. This read less like a SOTU speech and more like a rally for liberals.

That would be fine except that … there are some things that kind of need to happen. Entitlements need to be reigned in. Our tax and regulatory structure are desperate for an overhaul. We need to cut spending and in a smarter way than the sequester does. So, in the end, this is fiddling while Rome burns. Or, more accurately, making MSNBC fawn over themselves while the country stumbles and bumbles.

Let’s go through a few talking points.

Over the last few years, both parties have worked together to reduce the deficit by more than $2.5 trillion – mostly through spending cuts, but also by raising tax rates on the wealthiest 1 percent of Americans. As a result, we are more than halfway towards the goal of $4 trillion in deficit reduction that economists say we need to stabilize our finances.

Technically, this is true. In reality, almost all of these “cuts” are in future budgets, not current ones. Spending has been flat over the last couple of years (after the 2009 runup) and it is now likely our deficit will fall under $1 trillion this year. If we can maintain that semi-discipline, the deficit will be a little less disastrous. But that budget control has come over the frothing opposition of the President’s party and every liberal commentator out there. And it’s still more like a few hundred billion, at most. You can’t really claim budget cuts that haven’t happened yet, especially when the rest of your agenda amounts to MOAR SPENDING!

Obama comes out against the sequester, which is indeed a crude and likely destructive tool compared to more targeted cuts (of course, he happily ignores his role in creating the sequester). It also doesn’t address, as he notes, entitlements. Oh, but on that subject:

On Medicare, I’m prepared to enact reforms that will achieve the same amount of health care savings by the beginning of the next decade as the reforms proposed by the bipartisan Simpson-Bowles commission. Already, the Affordable Care Act is helping to slow the growth of health care costs. The reforms I’m proposing go even further. We’ll reduce taxpayer subsidies to prescription drug companies and ask more from the wealthiest seniors. We’ll bring down costs by changing the way our government pays for Medicare, because our medical bills shouldn’t be based on the number of tests ordered or days spent in the hospital – they should be based on the quality of care that our seniors receive. And I am open to additional reforms from both parties, so long as they don’t violate the guarantee of a secure retirement. Our government shouldn’t make promises we cannot keep – but we must keep the promises we’ve already made.

Let’s get this straight: Obama’s healthcare reforms have not slowed the cost of healthcare costs. That slowing began before Obamacare was passed and was likely related to the Great Recession. Furthermore, his healthcare reforms have completely screwed young people, saving money by restricting what insurance companies can charge older people and therefore jacking up insurance rates on young people. (Yeah, how do you feel about voting for Obama by 24 points now, young people?)

He then talks about tax reform. But unless the mortgage interest deduction is on the table, such talk in unserious. That is not only one of the largest deductions (and one that heavily benefits the wealthy; for most middle class people, the mortgage interest deduction is less than their standard deduction), the unwillingness to challenge it is a sign of fecklessness. If you’re not willing to at least have it one the table at some point, you’re not serious about tax reform. Obama isn’t.

Obama then pivots to the economy for about the eighth time this week.

After shedding jobs for more than 10 years, our manufacturers have added about 500,000 jobs over the past three.

Almost all of those jobs were created by 2012. It’s nice they are coming back. But that has nothing to do with government policy and everything to do with smart business. Many businesses have realized that outsourcing wasn’t such a hot idea. They are bringing back some of their manufacturing. But most of it will remain overseas. And those trends have nothing to do with Obama’s policies.

Obama then talks up science and technology — fair enough. But then we get this whopper:

We produce more oil at home than we have in 15 years. We have doubled the distance our cars will go on a gallon of gas, and the amount of renewable energy we generate from sources like wind and solar – with tens of thousands of good, American jobs to show for it. We produce more natural gas than ever before – and nearly everyone’s energy bill is lower because of it. And over the last four years, our emissions of the dangerous carbon pollution that threatens our planet have actually fallen.

Good Lord, there’s a lot of BS in here. First of all, we have not doubled the distance our cars will go on a gallon of gas. That’s a goal in the law, but it is not reality. We encounter this over and over with Obama. He thinks that just passing a law calling for something to be done is the same as actually doing it. He fundamentally believes that law has the ability to change reality, alter the laws of physics and create the future. So, in his mind, we have doubled the mileage of cars. We passed a law, didn’t we? So.. done! QED. It’s the same logic by which he claims we have cut spending by $2.5 trillion because we passed a law calling on future Congresses to do so.

Second, jobs are being created in renewables but government investment is hurting that trend by funneling money to politically connected dead ends. Third, production of oil and gas have boomed over liberal protestations. Fourth, energy bills are not down (even with subsidies, renewables cost more per kwH than fossil fuels). And fifth, our emissions are down, in large part, because we have moved energy production from carbon-intensive coal to less carbon-intensive natural gas. None of this, none of it, is because of Obama’s policies. It is all because of innovation in the private sector.

He then talks of supporting McCain’s cap-and-trade scheme — the one that would put strings in every corner of industry and create hundreds of billions in federal slush funds. He propose that revenues from energy sources on federal lands go to an “Energy Security Trust” — another slush fund. This is the same stuff he has rolled out every year and it has gone nowhere.

America’s energy sector is just one part of an aging infrastructure badly in need of repair. Ask any CEO where they’d rather locate and hire: a country with deteriorating roads and bridges, or one with high-speed rail and internet; high-tech schools and self-healing power grids.

Tonight, I propose a “Fix-It-First” program to put people to work as soon as possible on our most urgent repairs, like the nearly 70,000 structurally deficient bridges across the country. And to make sure taxpayers don’t shoulder the whole burden, I’m also proposing a Partnership to Rebuild America that attracts private capital to upgrade what our businesses need most: modern ports to move our goods; modern pipelines to withstand a storm; modern schools worthy of our children.

I’ve gone over the massively overstated case that our infrastructure is crumbling (such statements come from groups that lobby for more infrastructure spending). The Partnership to Rebuild America sounds very iffy. I’d much rather see privatization.

After talking about re-inflating the housing bubble, he turns to Universal Union Employment, er, Pre-K:

Study after study shows that the sooner a child begins learning, the better he or she does down the road. But today, fewer than 3 in 10 four year-olds are enrolled in a high-quality preschool program. Most middle-class parents can’t afford a few hundred bucks a week for private preschool. And for poor kids who need help the most, this lack of access to preschool education can shadow them for the rest of their lives.

Tonight, I propose working with states to make high-quality preschool available to every child in America.

I have taken on this subject before. There is no evidence that universal pre-K — yes, even in Oklahoma and Georgia — does anything. In fact, American kids start school performing quite well compared to international peers. But the longer they are in the public system, the more their performance decays. There is simply no good case to be made — other than wishful thinking and good feelings — that a lack of universal pre-K is the biggest problem with our education system. There’s frankly not a lot of evidence that it’s a problem at all. The logic amounts to “other countries have universal pre-K (even though many don’t) and other countries have better educational performance, therefore …” That ain’t logic. That’s rationalizing millions more union jobs.

Sandwiched in between Obama’s bullshit about pre-K and bullshit about college education is a not so bad idea:

Let’s also make sure that a high school diploma puts our kids on a path to a good job. Right now, countries like Germany focus on graduating their high school students with the equivalent of a technical degree from one of our community colleges, so that they’re ready for a job. At schools like P-Tech in Brooklyn, a collaboration between New York Public Schools, the City University of New York, and IBM, students will graduate with a high school diploma and an associate degree in computers or engineering.

We need to give every American student opportunities like this. Four years ago, we started Race to the Top – a competition that convinced almost every state to develop smarter curricula and higher standards, for about 1 percent of what we spend on education each year. Tonight, I’m announcing a new challenge to redesign America’s high schools so they better equip graduates for the demands of a high-tech economy. We’ll reward schools that develop new partnerships with colleges and employers, and create classes that focus on science, technology, engineering, and math – the skills today’s employers are looking for to fill jobs right now and in the future.

This is, in fact, something that Bobby Jindal has been pushing in Louisiana. Most people do not need a college education to get a good job that matches their skills. A better high school education — focused more on skills than abstraction — could obviate the need for crushing student debt and bloated universities.

Oh, about that higher education. Obama claims to have brought down costs (he hasn’t) and proposes that student loans be more conditional on education utility rather than just being handed out. Of course, that could be achieved very easily and cheaply if we 1) re-privatized the student loan market; and 2) made student loans dischargeable in bankruptcy. This would guarantee that $100,000 loans for degrees in puppetry wouldn’t happen. But, of course, that wouldn’t create more government spending and control.

Obama then digs into immigration, which I’ve already blogged about. He urges passage of the Violence Against Women Act (a bad piece of legislation wrapped in good sound bites) and the Paycheck Fairness Act. He proposes raising the minimum wage and linking it to the cost of living (as Romney proposed). Of course, that ignores that the COLA fell in recent years. Would the government then cut the minimum wage appropriately? I think not.

And this year, my Administration will begin to partner with 20 of the hardest-hit towns in America to get these communities back on their feet. We’ll work with local leaders to target resources at public safety, education, and housing. We’ll give new tax credits to businesses that hire and invest. And we’ll work to strengthen families by removing the financial deterrents to marriage for low-income couples, and doing more to encourage fatherhood – because what makes you a man isn’t the ability to conceive a child; it’s having the courage to raise one.

Spend, spend, spend on dead towns. Create collaborations between local government, federal government and business to maximize corruption. That’s the way to move an economy!

Obama then shifts to foreign policy. He promises to get out troops out of Afghanistan and adds this:

Different al Qaeda affiliates and extremist groups have emerged – from the Arabian Peninsula to Africa. The threat these groups pose is evolving. But to meet this threat, we don’t need to send tens of thousands of our sons and daughters abroad, or occupy other nations. Instead, we will need to help countries like Yemen, Libya, and Somalia provide for their own security, and help allies who take the fight to terrorists, as we have in Mali. And, where necessary, through a range of capabilities, we will continue to take direct action against those terrorists who pose the gravest threat to Americans.

I don’t disagree entirely with this. But it seems like this has been obvious for quite some time and it took a disaster in Benghazi for the Administration to figure out that they were wielding the guns of august.

Here is the biggest whopper of the night:

As we do, we must enlist our values in the fight. That is why my Administration has worked tirelessly to forge a durable legal and policy framework to guide our counterterrorism operations. Throughout, we have kept Congress fully informed of our efforts. I recognize that in our democracy, no one should just take my word that we’re doing things the right way. So, in the months ahead, I will continue to engage with Congress to ensure not only that our targeting, detention, and prosecution of terrorists remains consistent with our laws and system of checks and balances, but that our efforts are even more transparent to the American people and to the world.

This is, frankly, a lie. The Administration only recently shared their drone policies with some members of Congress after being excoriated for the ambiguities in their “white paper” on the subject. They have asserted just as much executive authority as Bush did and with even less transparency. This Administration has killed an American citizen and his son and refused to disclose the rationale. They have asserted their ability to kill American citizens without any kind of due process of external review. To talk as though they were the most accountable transparent Administration ever is absurd and offensive.

After burbling inanities on Russia, Iran, North Korea and third world poverty, he gets to his final issue, which is gun control:

Overwhelming majorities of Americans – Americans who believe in the 2nd Amendment – have come together around commonsense reform – like background checks that will make it harder for criminals to get their hands on a gun. Senators of both parties are working together on tough new laws to prevent anyone from buying guns for resale to criminals. Police chiefs are asking our help to get weapons of war and massive ammunition magazines off our streets, because they are tired of being outgunned.

Most of this I don’t have a problem with (although I don’t like citing victims of tragedy in support of any law). The problem here is the last sentence which claims that our citizens have “weapons of war” and the police are outgunned. This is simply false. Automatic weapons are heavily regulated and illegal in most areas. And the proliferation of para-military SWAT teams and no-knock raids that results in such things as the killing of Jose Guerena (a military man who responded to what he thought were robbers with a military weapon) cries against this bleating about police being outgunned. In fact, police fatalities have been declining steadily for nearly four decades.

All, in all, it was what I expected. A huge declaration of a big liberal agenda that will never happen. Punting on the most important issues and staying the course of this bumbling presidency. And always deferring to the state and the law for progress.

SOTU’s are never very substantive. With each one, I become more and more convinced that Thomas Jefferson got it right and the SOTU should be a letter instead of a monarchial speech. But it does give us a chance to see what kind of agenda that President’s party thinks they should be flogging. And this agenda is … well, what we expect after four years. Bigger government in the language of smaller; “new ideas” that aren’t; bold initiatives that are throwbacks to yesteryear; Bush policies in prettier packaging.

Change!

Obama’s Jobs Record

In video form:

That’s called Mathematical Malpractice. And the video is textbook about how to tear these “true but false” claims apart.

The Fed decided to start Quantitative Easement Three today. I won’t pretend I understand all the ins and outs. I’ve heard conflicting analyses from people who do understand it. But let’s hope it does some good. Something has to.

Weekend Roundup

As of tonight, I am on the other side of the world. Actually, most people would say I blog like someone on from a completely different world. But in this case, it’s literally true: I’m back in Australia. As a result of preparations and travel, I’ve missed the biggest news stories of the week. So I’ll go through them quickly in a weekend roundup form to hopefully start a few (well-reasoned) fights.

….

First, Indiana became the latest right-to-work state over fierce labor union opposition. Ever so slowly, the unions are losing their grip on power. Watch out for Mitch Daniels come 2016. That guy has President written all over him.

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Eric Holder continues to lower the bar for attorneys general. His latest statement is that he will crack down on Operation Fast and Furious. Actually, he will crack down on OFF whistleblowers. This man’s allegiance to government power should be a much bigger story.

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The latest jobs report is out. Not only did job creation numbers blow by expectations, but December and November numbers were revised upward. All told, 300k jobs were added in multiple sectors, including manufacturing, and the unemployment rate is down to 8.3%. It’s been many years since we had a jobs report that solid.

Now, the total unemployment number — which accounts for people who have given up looking for work — has only fallen a little. But it has fallen … a little. This is ceasing to be a blip and starting to look like a resurgence. It’s not near strong enough. But it’s hopeful. We’ll know things are really getting better when job creation numbers rise and the unemployment rate also rises. That will tell us when people are rejoining the labor force.

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I don’t have a lot of interest in the spat between the Komen Foundation and Planned Parenthood over the former pulling funding from the latter because of abortion, then reversing that decision. I do however, think Josh Barro has a legitimate point: Planned Parenthood supporters need to quit pretending that abortion is only incidental to PP’s mission and function. They are one of the largest abortion providers in the nation, it is a huge part of their budget and anyone who has been to a clinic can not but notice how big a part abortion is of what they do.

The Planned Parenthood defenders are throwing out a statistic that abortions are only 3% of Planned Parenthood’s services. That may be literally true, but it’s comparing apples to watermelons. An abortion is a far more involved and expensive procedure than a breast cancer screening or a birth control consultation. By way of illustration, a surgeon may do see a patient ten times for follow-up of a single surgical procedure. But only an idiot would claim that surgery is only 10% of what a surgeon does.

People who support Planned Parenthood do so, in part, because of their abortion services. If Planned Parenthood ended abortions tomorrow, their support would shrink, at least a little. You can not both support Planned Parenthood because someone needs to provide abortions and then turn around and claim abortion is only a small part of what they do. Agreeing with this doesn’t make you pro-life or anti-woman or anti-choice or even anti-Planned-Parenthood. It makes you connected with reality.

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Finally, the CBO released their latest projection, which is for a $1.1 trillion deficit this year (believe it or not, that’s down by several hundred billion from the peak) and more trillions over the next decade. They also project that the economy will weaken as tax hikes and spending cuts kick in. Color me very skeptical on that last part. The CBOs models are rigged a certain way. And that way is of dubious accuracy.