As you know, there are signs — tentative ones — that our economy is beginning to recover from Great Depression II. It’s about on schedule — I thought we would need about five years to crawl out of the hole we were in. But we had 5% growth in Q3 and unemployment continues to edge down (although the U6 remains high). Projections for 2015 are cautiously optimistic, barring a major war or something (which, with … Read more
Tag Archive: Recessions
The economy contracted almost three percent in the first quarter, the worst quarter since the end of the Great Recession. Maybe it’s a blip, but that is a scary number. I’m sure the Obama defenders will blame it on the cold weather but I’m pretty sure we had cold weather in the past. Eventually, this will be Bush’s fault. Or “austerity”.
This is horrible news, whatever your politics. While I oppose Obama, I want the … Read more
The initial numbers for 2012 Q4 show the economy shrank at 0.1%. Are we entering a double-dip recession? Ed Morrissey breaks the numbers down a bit:
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In other words, much of this drop seems to be a lack of inventory expansion. Real final sales to end purchasers rose, even if it didn’t go up by much. That would indicate that inventory expansion in Q3 and prior periods was based on overly-optimistic views of the economy.
Fro a while now we have had an orchestrated LSM attempt to pretend that the economy is not in the tank or heading that way yet again, so it comes as no surprise to me that 7 in 10 small business owners are not hiring, and blaming the economic policies of the last 3 years and the bad economy it has created for not doing so. Things are bad out there. Don’t let the LSM … Read more
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The U.S. labor market continues to make progress and once again shows, without a shadow of a doubt, that the U.S. economy is not in recession. Including upward revisions for August and September, nonfarm payrolls increased 182,000, almost doubling the consensus expected gain of 95,000. Civilian employment, an alternative measure of jobs that factors in small business start-ups, increased 277,000. This gain helped push down the unemployment rate to 9 percent.
GDP went up at a 2.5% annual pace last quarter, which is pretty decent — wasn’t “austerity” supposed to kill us? We’re now back to GDP level we were at … almost four years ago. Yes, it’s time to party like it’s Q4 2007. An important point, jumped out at me, however:
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real GDP is finally back to its pre-recession peak, and it’s taken us an historically very long time to get here. The
When I saw the news yesterday that Moodys put the US rating on a downgrade watch and that was also followed immediately by Standard & Poor’s pushing the same narrative, I immediately became suspicious of the timing and this idiotic warning. Remember that Moody and S&P where the people that kept telling us that all those mortgage security packages, replete with bad loans almost guaranteed to go south, repackaged through Freddie and Fannie, where … Read more