So … here’s a question for the class. The polls are tightening, mostly because Trump is gaining from undecideds and Johnson/Stein voters (remember the hysterical Democrats imploring people not to vote for Johnson? Good times.) At the moment, Clinton leads in battleground state polls, although those can sometimes lag national trends. But right, now Nate Silver is projected about a 5-10% chance that Clinton loses the popular vote, but wins the electoral college.
I really hope that doesn’t happen. Trump and his supporters would melt down something fierce. It was bad enough in 2000. But it would provide on point of entertainment: watching the entire political-media complex argue the exact opposite of what they did in 2000. Republicans would scream about the will of the people; Democrats would scream about following the process.
So, here’s the question. A number of states have signed onto the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact in which, if enough states sign on, these states would agree to shift their electoral votes to the popular vote winner in the case of an electoral-popular split. Every single one of these states is a blue state, most of them very blue.
If there is an electoral-popular split this year (or close to it), how fast will those states withdraw from the NPVIC? Which will be the first to bail? Which will be the last state in?