Tag: poll

Poll Fatigue

All of the Serious Conservative Blogs have been killing me with annoyed boredom over their obsession with polls. Not since high school have I given fewer fucks about the use for math. The only thing I can tell from pollsters like Rasmussen is that Romney is either going to win in a glorious landslide or suffer a heartbreaking but very close defeat.

For my part, I think Romney will win comfortably (for whatever that’s worth; look for a post on this over the weekend). But I get that from my own sense of the country’s direction and the behavior of the two campaigns. Is Obama really defending his record? Is he laying out a coherent 2nd Term plan beyond “I’m Not Romney and Not Me From the Past Four Years Either”?

Also, I look at the most meaningful quantifiable measurement: Money! One campaign is bringing it in and spending it in states that the other won comfortably last time. The other one is taking out loans and pulling ground operations out of certain states that it won in 2008.

Polls are great for filling a slow news day, but what exactly do we get out of it that we can’t see for ourselves? When I read the comments sections on some stories about polls, I want to laugh at the people who say, “Hey, I counted X Romney signs in my neighborhood and only X Obama signs here!” Not because they’re ignorant, but because I’ve also found that to be a reliable indicator of how a state will probably vote. In 2004, I travelled the country a lot on business. I noticed the signs and accurately predicted the way each state would go except Pennsylvania. In the end, my method was more effective in identifying the winner than Zogby. It doesn’t require the hard science and money that Zogby spent either.

There’s a lot of noise out there this week and will be until Election Day. Leave the polls out of this. What do YOU see coming? I don’t care if it’s a gut feeling. Who’s going to win?