I was thinking about this whole Iranian bomb plot that would use Mexican cartels to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador in a restaurant on US soil today, and how it was being discussed. Most people are saying this smells like a rat. It looks like an attempt to cover up something or to distract from their troubles, by agents of the WH. Holder was eager to talk about this plot but walked away as soon as they asked about Fast & Furious. I doubt this scenario. These people are idiots. They can’t do anything right. If they are behind it we will find out sooner than later.
Some others claim that this could not be a state sanctioned operation and that it has to be rogue elements within Iran that are behind it. That’s because they believe no sane leader would want to fuck with the US military or because they still are deluded enough to think Iran means well. I would not be surprised that a few are advancing this scenario simply because the alternative means the US has to act, and act with force, and they want none of that. But if this was really a rogue operation – by a member of the leadership of the Quds force which was identified by the perp we grabbed – I expect his life to be short lived. Iran’s supreme ruler doesn’t like people that are free thinkers. These guys don’t do anything without permission, and permission comes from the ayatollah that now owns Iran. Self motivated thinkers are a threat to his power.
So I am starting to find myself in a third camp, and worry that this mission did come from Khameini himself, and serves a couple of purposes. The first and most obvious is to have our security apparatus expose itself. By having a bunch of bunglers get caught, they hope to learn about how we do things. They can even kill the bunglers – Khameini has been ruthless in getting rid of anyone that he feels has gotten too much power and can cause him trouble – and thus make it look like it was an unsanctioned operation. With the weaklings in the WH caught in their own problems and our military Khameini probably figures he will walk away with minimal pain. And if it succeeds, they score a big hit. Considering the inept people in charge they might even think that they will never be able to link it back to them in time for it to matter.
The second purpose or reason however, is frightening, and plays right into the first one. Khameini might already be thinking that since the West has done nothing to stop Iran from getting a bomb, and even has gone so far as to tie the hands of Israel to stop them from doing anything by themselves, that the Iranian bomb is a foregone conclusion. And if that’s the case, he can already start expanding on his terror operations. That goes doubly so if Iran is really close to having a working bomb. As I and others have said, Iran’s leadership’s sole obvious reason for wanting one of these is to give itself protection from a conventional attacks by a western military force once it escalates its operations to expand Iranian influence in the region.
By default they need to prove that they can hit at the US with impunity to reduce American influence in the area. By attacking their nemesis and most likely adversary in the region – Saudi Arabia – at the same time, they score a twofer. Either way, this is frightening. I do not expect us to take any kind of significant action that would tell the Iranian thugocracy that they will pay for these kind of things, and that will only enforce their belief that we are weak and ripe for the taking. This is going to get ugly. We ignore the bomb angle at our own peril as well.