Tag: Labour economics

More disinformation and pre-election propaganda from the LSM

Rueters has another bullshit piece about how unemployment is getting better, right in time to help Team Blue claim things are getting better because of them, as the election approaches.

(Reuters) – Employment growth accelerated last month and the jobless rate dropped to a near three-year low of 8.5 percent, offering the strongest evidence yet the economic recovery was gaining steam.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 200,000 in December, the Labor Department said on Friday. It was the biggest rise in three months and way above economists’ expectations for a 150,000 gain.

The unemployment rate dropped from a revised 8.7 percent in November to its lowest level since February 2009, a heartening sign for President Barack Obama whose re-election hopes could hinge on the state of the labor market.

Of course, this is all slight of hand. Reuter’s Team Blue propaganda piece omits some key information:

While some of these forward-looking numbers hold promise, the actual jobs numbers so far have been middling. Hopefully the numbers tomorrow will turn that around. But the real missing piece for a true recovery in the job market has been workers. Even as the unemployment rate dropped from 9 percent to 8.6 percent last month, a little over half of that decline was due to workers dropping out of the labor force.

Labor force participation averaged 66 percent through most of the 2000s. It now stands at 64 percent after declining again last month. If more people were still looking for jobs, and the participation rate were back up at 66 percent, the unemployment rate would now be 11.4 percent instead of 8.6 percent.

What all this means is that workers have been voting with their feet and choosing to not participate in a job market they see as weak. Because participation is a measure of worker/voter attitude, it will be an interesting metric to watch this election year. It points as much to how voters are thinking about the job market as how the job market is actually performing.

This is more of the same. If you recall last spring’s CBO prediction that we would add 2.9 million jobs between 2010 and 2012, halfway there we had only added 200K jobs, would mean an unbelievable 170K plus per month job creation scenario, till the election date, to meet that 2.9 million number. Seriously, how do you get that to happen, with Europe about to implode and China’s economy grinding to a halt, when your policies continue to be anti job creation? The answer is you don’t. So hence, this need to make up shit to pretend you are doing good. And have no doubt this is made up/manipulated numbers. And don’t forget all the part timers looking for full time jobs either.

They are not counted. Things are far worse than they have been trying to convince you for the last 3 years. As I pointed out in this post, get ready for a whole world of misinformation, intended to convince fools that things are getting better. The economy however is doing nothing of the sort, and the people getting hammered by it know it. They will fool many, but they won’t be able to fool enough people.

UPDATE: Even MSNBC watchers seem to understand this is bullshit propaganda.

When I looked at that poll 61.1% of them were saying they saw no improvement whatsoever. I guess they have not been told hard enough that things are better. Don’t worry. More tripe will be shoveled out to try and convince them that what they see and feel and thus perceive as the truth, is not true, but that what the propagandists are telling them should be considered true. They did the exact same thing back in the old USSR and this gets done constantly in most shit hole communist “paradises” these days, yet the people know better.

The Slow Emergence


The U.S. labor market continues to make progress and once again shows, without a shadow of a doubt, that the U.S. economy is not in recession. Including upward revisions for August and September, nonfarm payrolls increased 182,000, almost doubling the consensus expected gain of 95,000. Civilian employment, an alternative measure of jobs that factors in small business start-ups, increased 277,000. This gain helped push down the unemployment rate to 9 percent.

A year ago the unemployment rate was 9.7 percent. During this time, nonfarm jobs have grown at an average monthly rate of 152,000 while civilian employment has grown at a rate of 140,000 per month. In other words, we don’t need 150,000 jobs per month just to keep the unemployment rate steady. Because of the aging of the labor force, 150,000 jobs per month is more than enough to push down the jobless rate.

Very quietly, without fanfare, private-sector payrolls have grown by 1.8 million in the past year, while the work week has lengthened and hourly cash wages are up 1.8 percent. Total hours worked are up 1.7 percent in the past year.

9% is not good by any means, but it is about as good as I expected a year ago. What’s really interesting is that this rise in civilian employment has matched and slightly exceeded a supposedly catastrophic decline in government employment. We’re supposed to believe that this “austerity” — which is austerity in these sense that ordering a diet coke with your triple bacon cheeseburger is a diet — hurts employment. According to standard economic multipliers, civilian jobs should grow far less than government jobs decline. Not happening. All the big spenders have left is a frail argument that if we had only maintained our high levels of spending, unemployment would be even lower. It’s this year’s “jobs created or saved”.

What I think is spurring this … well, we can hardly call it growth yet … is partially the gridlock in Washington. It would probably be better if we had serious efforts on tax reform and deficit reduction. But even the extremely modest step of taking out foot off the gas has helped. But a bigger part is that we are deleveraging in the private sector, reducing our credit card and mortgage debt and increasing our savings rate. It may not make for nice numbers in the short run, but it’s a better long-term strategy.