Tag: Deflation

Here comes a recession, UNEXPECTEDLY!

Reading this CNBC article about the current plunge in economic data, you get the impression, yet again, that these “experts” in the MSM are constantly baffled by the continued negative economic news that keeps coming because they, after all the evidence to the contrary, still think that the destructive borrow-or-print & spend policies of the last 2 or 3 years from the anti-business Keynesian jackasses in charge, somehow should be working.

The last month has been a horror show for the U.S. economy, with economic data falling off a cliff, according to Mike Riddell, a fund manager at M&G Investments in London. “It seems that almost every bit of data about the health of the US economy has disappointed expectations recently,” said Riddell, in a note sent to CNBC on Wednesday.

“US house prices have fallen by more than 5 percent year on year, pending home sales have collapsed and existing home sales disappointed, the trend of improving jobless claims has arrested, first quarter GDP wasn’t revised upwards by the 0.4 percent forecast, durables goods orders shrank, manufacturing surveys from Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Fed and Chicago Fed were all very disappointing.”

“And that’s just in the last week and a bit,” said Riddell. Pointing to the dramatic turnaround in the Citigroup “Economic Surprise Index” for the United States, Riddell said the tumble in a matter of months to negative from positive is almost as bad as the situation before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Heh! WTF are they talking about? Did they miss all the people pointing out that the tack the democrats took – to make the deficit spending of the Bush years suddenly look like the good years, while targeting all the bloat towards their operatives, lobbyists, union & corporate buddies, and in general, any front they could use that would then funnel the money into their campaign coffers, cushioning the impact of the Dodd & Franks lending/financial industry collapse for state and federal government employees at the expense of the private sector – was a recipe for disaster? At least they aren’t claiming the problem was that they didn’t do double the stupid anymore.

Housing prices continue to fall because the fundamental underlying policy that caused the implosion remains untouched, Freddie & Fannie are still at it, while the new regulation that was passed to supposedly “protect” the American people from the “greed” of Wall Street, makes it virtually stupid for any lending institution to loan money to job creators. Job creators that even when doing fine BTW are not creating any jobs, because they simply can not predict the actions of this business-hostile government and the insane regulations it puts out. Regulation that instead of dealing with the problems are instead intended to make government responsible for picking the winners & losers, heavily favoring the idiotic industries and giant corporations the left feels will help it grow it’s political & financial power, at the tax payer’s expense. In the mean time the private sector hunkers down and hopes to whether the storm.

And let’s not forget that we have not had a budget for over 2 years now. The democrats call any attempt to roll back the most massive expansion of the welfare state since the days of FDR “draconian”, and infer the people that are calling for fiscal sanity want to kill granny, kids, pets, and the planet. All so they can avoid actually having to admit their fiscal policies are insane and unsustainable. They refuse to propose any changes to address the looming and massive entitlement spending problem and the out of control deficit spending that is tacking trillions to our debt each year, and demagogue those that dare propose any changes that don’t involve fleecing the productive sector even harder than they already do. They rammed through a government takeover of healthcare bill that will drastically impact not just healthcare, but puts us on a quicker path to financial implosion. They have virtually had no energy policy, other than to drive up the prices of the types of cheap energy sources that stand in the way of them gauging people, to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars, while pushing both inefficient and marginal “green” technologies nobody would go for otherwise. Their job policy has consisted of funneling billions of tax payer dollars to temporarily prop up government/public jobs over tax payer/private sector jobs, and it shows. The list of other such economic transgressions is long and replete of idiocy. It’s why we are seeing soaring inflation and a dramatic deflation in the value of the dollar. Heck, despite falsely blaming military spending for our predicament, they up and started another war in the Middle East, this time to steal oil for real, which I remind you should be ironic considering how that’s what they falsely accused their predecessor of, and completely ignoring all the politically motivated grandstanding they did back when, proving yet again that the only thing important to them is power at all costs. Think all of that isn’t going to come back home to roost?

“The correlation between the economic surprise index and Treasury yields is very close, so the lesson is that whatever your long term macro views are regarding hyper inflation vs. deflation or the risk of the US defaulting, the reality is that if you want to have a view about government bond prices, the best thing you can do is look at the economic data to see what’s actually going on,” said Riddell.

“And right now, the economic data is suggesting that however measly you may think a 3 percent yield is on a 10-year Treasury, the yield should probably be a fair bit lower given what’s going on in the US economy,” said Riddell. “You’ve also got to wonder at what point the markets for risky assets start noticing, too.”

The markets noticed. And while they may claim to be baffled, they are now seeing the obvious end game. The economic path the left has us on right now is unsustainable. The deficit spending to grow government was wrong during the Bush years, it affected the 2008 elections, and it is magnitudes of orders more wrong now that the left is doing orders of magnitude more insane spending. Gird your loins people. The ride is about to get even more bumpy, and the morons refuse to accept the fact that the gravy train is about to run off the proverbial blown up bridge.