Tag: Census

Shifting the Numbers

We’ve gotten used to the numbers game this Administration plays with Obamacare. It was going to ensure thirty million. No twenty million. No ten million. We have seven million signed up! Well, they haven’t all paid. And five million previously had insurance. And insurance rates are going down! Well, they’re actually going up. And the number of uninsured is the lowest in five years! Well, that just brings us back to pre-recession levels — a level that meant people were dying in the streets when Bush was President but means progress now that Obama is.

Still, even with all that, this is pretty blatant:

The Census Bureau, the authoritative source of health insurance data for more than three decades, is changing its annual survey so thoroughly that it will be difficult to measure the effects of President Obama’s health care law in the next report, due this fall, census officials said.

The changes are intended to improve the accuracy of the survey, being conducted this month in interviews with tens of thousands of households around the country. But the new questions are so different that the findings will not be comparable, the officials said.

An internal Census Bureau document said that the new questionnaire included a “total revision to health insurance questions” and, in a test last year, produced lower estimates of the uninsured. Thus, officials said, it will be difficult to say how much of any change is attributable to the Affordable Care Act and how much to the use of a new survey instrument.

The Census Bureau estimates this will reduce the number of estimated uninsured by two percentage points — from 12.5% to 10.6%. That’s basically six million people — which is about two-thirds of what Obamacare is supposed to accomplish. In other words, a real decline in the uninsured of 9 million could look like 15 million or even more simply because the changes in the way the Census does things.

To be fair, these changes have been needed for a while and are driven by technical experts at the Census Bureau, not the Administration. Conservatives have long complained that the methodology overestimates the number of uninsured. But to quote Megan McArdle, it doesn’t matter if these changes are coming from elves at the north pole. It would be well within the President’s authority to delay the changes so we can get a clear read on the effects of PPACA.

Do you think any liberal pundits will take note of this? A few years ago, both the NCVS and FBI changed their methodology when calculating rape statistics. This didn’t stop feminists from jumping on the “shocking rise” in rape rates.

If the Obama Administration were confident in their program, they wouldn’t be tinkering with the definition of uninsured. If they were even curious about how well their program was working, they’d delay this. What does it tell you that they’re happy to let the waters get muddied like this?