We didn't lose the game; we just ran out of time. - Vince Lombardi
Sunday, June 21, 2009
He’s the One They Call Dr. Feelgood
by
I hate stepping on Hal’s toes on this because he’s the healthcare expert around here. However, this is just too good to pass up.
I’ve referred to Obama as the character in the title with regards to his healthcare plan, because he and the Democrats have snowed Americans into thinking that it’s going to be more cost-effective if the government guarantees healthcare for everyone.
Obama’s proposal to provide health insurance for some 50 million Americans who lack it has become a contentious point for a Democratic-controlled House and Senate struggling to reach a consensus Obama desperately wants.
Much of the concern came after the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that the plan would cost $1 trillion over 10 years but cover only about one-third of those now lacking health insurance.
Democrats protested that the estimate overlooked important money-savers to be added later. But Republicans seized on the costly projection and the bill’s half-finished nature, throwing Democratic leaders on the defensive.
And what are some of the ways this money will be saved?
He wants to cut federal payments to hospitals by about $200 billion and cut $313 billion from Medicare and Medicaid over 10 years. He also is proposing a $635 billion in tax increases and spending cuts in the health care system as a “down payment” for his plan.
Now a “down payment,” in the real world, is one that is provided right away to purchase something. Obama is effectively proposing a massive tax increase during a time when the government is auctioning off Treasury bonds like a Depression-era farm liquidation sale, and by his administration’s own admission, will be taking on trillions more in debt over the course of his run as president. Furthermore, is he really going to cut that much from Medicare? As Geoff at Innocent Bystanders points out, history isn’t exactly on his side:
As Geoff noted, that is from Table 13 of the government’s report (and yes, it’s buried at the very end).
I saw this chart on the heels of reading this June 8analysis by Karl Denninger of the current fiscal state:
It is one thing for people to flee the long end of the bond curve; that’s bad. Its another for people to flee Treasury bonds in general - that’s an unmitigated disaster. The auctions last week showed that there is an incredible appetite from foreigners for very short term government debt - 4 week to 52 week bills - where the indirect bidder activity was at or close to double historical norms. This, in the face of the incredible amount of issuance that is occurring, tells me that they’re selling something to replace it with these short-term instruments. Friday told us what the “something” was.
Folks, we have taken the wrong road. At the fork in mid 2007 and indeed into 2008 when the fork was still accessible I wrote extensively on the path we had to take if we wanted to avoid at best a Japan-style flatline of the economy for years, and at worst something beyond the 1930s in terms of awful.
We have done nothing to rid ourselves of toxic debt. The implosion of the PPIP, the latest incantation of the “Super-SIV” (remember that?) makes clear: government will not force recognition of losses and thus the clearing of the market, as doing so would destroy too many who have bribed, er, made “campaign contributions”, to the political sphere.
Worse, government not only took on these debts themselves (via The Fed and Treasury with their “support” programs) but continues to issue more and more debt to fund what is a categorically-insane federal budget - one that is, this fiscal year, going to run a deficit of some forty percent. To put this in perspective when George W. Bush was President many (myself included) were screaming about 10% fiscal deficits. Barack Obama proposes to run a deficit four times greater in percentage terms. Where are all the media and other pundits who were yelling about Bush’s “deficits for war”? Silent, that’s where, because this time the person doing it is a Democrat.
Read the both this article and Geoff’s--while Karl’s article is a bit apocalyptic for my taste, his fundamental point that the government is racking up unsustainable amounts of debt is unquestionable--even Obama has conceded this. The problem is that Obama is doing so in an environment where a Japan-like “lost decade” would be a best-case scenario, and he wants to add further healthcare obligations on top of all the other debt he’s racking up. He’s had a hard-on for health care reform for quite some time now. He is getting so desperate that he and the Democrats are doing things like proposing McCain’s idea on taxing healthcare benefits, that they ridiculed during the election, as a way to get this pushed through.
But he can’t run from reality. Geoff’s chart (using the government’s own figures) shows that Medicare ALWAYS is more expensive, per enrollee, than private health care plans. Furthermore, the government’s track record on providing quality health care, especially in relation to its price, is ridiculously bad--just ask military veterans. Any similar plan set up by Obama is going to cost far more than the initial figures, and will have far less impact than he is promoting--the administration admittedly “guessed” on the stimulus, and there is no reason to believe that they are not doing so now with healthcare reform.
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