Do, or do not. There is no 'try'. - Yoda
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Green Shoots Turning Into a Prairie Fire
by
While a great deal of posting is being devoted to healthcare, I wanted to put up a contextual post on the economy as a whole. Let’s start with the Delaware Lip, Joe Biden, who opened his mouth and crammed not just his foot, but his whole leg down his gullet: (via Drudge)
(CNSNews.com) – Vice President Joe Biden told people attending an AARP town hall meeting that unless the Democrat-supported health care plan becomes law the nation will go bankrupt and that the only way to avoid that fate is for the government to spend more money....
...“Now, people when I say that look at me and say, ‘What are you talking about, Joe? You’re telling me we have to go spend money to keep from going bankrupt?’” Biden said. “The answer is yes, that’s what I’m telling you.”
This comes on the heels of Robert Gibbs and Jared Bernstein repeating the Obama lie that the stimulus was meant to be a two year project: (via Jake Tapper’s blog)
ABC News’ Yunji de Nies reports:
Turns out the $787 billion “American Recovery and Reinvestment Act” (AARA) was not designed for full economic recovery, but rather to “stabilize” the downturn. That’s the word from White House officials today, who held off-camera briefings with reporters on how the AARA is working so far.
“This legislation was designed to cushion the downturn,” said White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs. “That’s why we have always talked about this as one function of economic recovery.”
When pressed about the change in terminology, Gibbs said he was not trying to temper expectations after the fact. “I can probably find 15 or 20 occasions when I said this in the lead up,” Gibbs said, explaining that he had always defined the AARA as part of a “multi-legged stool.”
Senior Economic Adviser Jared Bernstein said that the economy is improving—or at least getting “less bad.” And he said, that’s a good thing.
“It’s always challenging to explain that things getting less bad is actually a necessary path on the way to them being good, but that’s the truth,” Bernstein said. “The trends have to go recession, stabilization, recovery. Negative, less negative, positive.”
He continued, “For many key indicators, not all but many, we’re in that second stage, we’re in that stabilization stage. And it’s a fragile place to be, and it’s a good thing that this recovery act is a two year plan.”
Barney Frank even had the gall to go on the Daily Show and tell Stewart that the stimulus--oops, I mean “stabilization"--would have been even better if Specter, Snowe, and Collins had not demanded to leave $40 billion out of a $800 billion bill. (If there is a hell, I hope Frank’s version of it consists of him being raped by female porn stars)
Why is this important? Because the administration and their supporters, having lost their hedge bet that the economy would start to pick up naturally this year and they could promote the stimulus as the keystone, are now trying to press the meme that the economy is getting “less bad,” and is therefore getting better and will be fine next year. The only problem is, it probably won’t, as I’ll explain below the fold.
For starters, Tbills are still in the shitter. Currently, 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year rates are running at 0.15, 0.19, 0.28, and 0.47, respectively. A year ago, those rates were 1.36, 1.37, 1.89, and 2.16--even taking the bottoming out that the rates did at the end of 2008, that is a HUGE discrepancy.
Secondly, Karl Denninger’s “Four Horsemen of the Economic Apocalypse” blog, Market Ticker, has been tracking some rather disturbing trends, which I’ve linked to and quoted below:
1) OptionARMS are about to blow up:
Guess what the WSJ said this weekend?
“NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--For the third straight month, option adjustable-rate mortgages are generating proportionally more delinquencies and foreclosures than subprime mortgages, the scourge of the housing crisis.
A further acceleration of troubles among the loans could mean higher-than-expected losses for Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), as well as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s own insurance fund.”
2) The CIT bailout
Our government never ceases to amaze me:
“U.S. government officials are in advanced talks about aiding CIT Group Inc., one of the country’s primary lenders to small and midsize businesses, people familiar with the matter said.
The discussions are fluid. It remains unclear if a final deal can be brokered and, if so, how expansive it might be.”
Yeah yeah. Another company that gets in trouble by writing bad paper, paying zero attention to credit quality. This led to:
Over the past few months, CIT customers such as Eddie Bauer Holdings, Filene’s Basement Inc. and Kainos Partners, a franchisee of Dunkin’ Donuts stores, filed for bankruptcy protection.
Right. And CIT took a big loss, because it didn’t pay attention to the basics of credit, and continued to extend loans to companies that could not pay them back.
3) Port traffic is WAY down from last year. This was posted in the site’s forums at this entry on the decline in trucking traffic.
And finally, 4) MGIC is putting a hold on business:
This is REALLY BIG folks:
“NEW YORK, July 16 (Reuters) - Mortgage insurer MGIC Investment Corp reported a wider quarterly loss and said it will stop writing new business as losses mount in the battered housing sector, sending its shares down 14 percent in premarket trade.”
You basically cannot finance a home purchase with more than 80% LTV (loan to value) without private mortgage insurance - that is, insurance that covers the lender if you default and they take a loss.
MGIC (NYSE: MTG) is the largest issuer in this area. They said they will be “trying” to capitalize a new company to write this business, but their continuing losses - which, by the way, they said they thought they had under control last year after repeated flirtations with going under outright - has apparently forced this decision.
Folks, the economy is NOT getting better, whatever any Obamabots might tell you--in fact, it’s going to stay bad for a while, and could likely get even worse. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying or ignorant. That’s why Obama and his little propognada goons are frantically trying to change the narrative that is slowly emerging, which is that they are doing all this spending for nothing and will put us in a hole we will never be able to dig out of. That’s why he’s crammed through the stimulus, cap-and-trade, and now is trying to ram through healthcare--his biggest spending initiatives are the ones that Congress has barely read, even though these types of initiatives should call for the utmost care and caution before implementing them. He’s rapidly running out of political capital, and he knows it.
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