Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one. - Albert Einstein

Will They “Guess Wrong” Again?

by

A couple of days ago, I cited Biden’s interview with David Gregory, where Biden let slip this little gem about how the administration determined the impact of the stimulus:

Everyone guessed wrong, at the time the estimate was made, about what the state of the economy was at the moment this was passed.

Well, when you rush through a 1,000 page bill that will end up costing over $1 trillion before this is all over, “wrong guesses” inevitably result.  Geoff at Innocent Bystanders has more on the methodology used in determining the “guess”:

Take spending in Quarter 1, multiply by a factor to get its effect on GDP in downstream Quarters. So for its effect on Q2, we multiply Q1 spending by 1.05 and add it to Q2’s GDP. Then we multiply Q2 spending by 1.05 and Q1 spending by 1.24, and add them to the baseline GDP prediction for Q3.  And so on. The multiplying factor changes depending on how many Quarters downstream of the spending you are, but levels off after about 2 years.
Now we have a crude, crude estimate of the effect of stimulus spending on GDP. Then we get really scientific and say that 1% of GDP increase = 1 million jobs. If that has the feel of a complete swag, then I’d say you’re following this very well.
And that’s it.

What? You were expecting more? You thought that it would take more than an hour and the back of an envelope to make the calculations to justify an $800 billion spending package?

Yeah, me too.

Perhaps it was these assumptions that led Obama to make this asinine statement to Bloomberg:

“One of the biggest variables in this whole thing is economic growth,” the president said in an interview with Bloomberg News at the White House. “If we are growing at a robust rate, then we can pay for the government that we need without having to raise taxes.”
Obama has repeatedly said he would keep his campaign pledge to cut taxes for 95 percent of working Americans while rolling back tax breaks for households making more than $250,000 a year.

Note that Obama seems to be making the same flawed assumptions, using the same flawed methodology that Biden said caused them to “guess wrong,” but would continue to use anyway. 

This is being reported on the same day that Obama is getting ABC to provide him with a shill-laden kissy-face suck-fest to promote his health-care plans.  Never mind that, as Hal pointed out, the CBO has estimated that, for a cost of anwhere from $1 trillion to $1.6 trillion over ten years (and if anyone thinks it will remain that low, isn’t aware of how the government spends money), and will only result in a net gain of 16 million Americans with health insurance.

If any reporter had the guts to challenge their Lord and Savior on this, they would ask him this question from John Steele Gordon:

I have an idea. Why not have the federal government demonstrate that it can provide adequate health care to American Indians, a promise it hasn’t kept for 222 years? Then demonstrate it can provide adequate health care to veterans, a promise it hasn’t kept for 79 years. Then demonstrate that it can reform and efficiently run the health insurance system called Medicare, which it has been been making a dog’s breakfast of for the last 44 years. And then, and only then, take over all of American health care.

Or even better, why not have the mainstream media do its job for once and vigorously investigate the federal government’s actual track record in regard to health care? It’s not an impressive résumé for someone applying to run the whole show. Indeed, it’s a more-than-two-hundred-year record of failure, inadequate funding, bureaucratic indifference, and broken promises.

I guess trying to create a real-life version of the Smurf village is more important to these people than running the country like they actually know what the fuck they are doing, rather than “guessing.”

Comments

Posted by on 06/16/09 at 07:09 PM from

Obama is an idiot. 

Seriously, his actual comprehension of how the real world works at the most basic level is completely fucked up.  I wouldn’t trust that idjit to balance a checkbook or have a credit card....

Posted by Manwhore on 06/16/09 at 08:32 PM from

I had a professor in college that told me, and I quote:

“What is education? It’s an experiment.”

That said, I blame this on a culture of this country treating life as if it were T-Ball. Not everyone’s snowflake is destined for greatness. Some will rightfully need (need) to be snaking my toilet. The culture we have created over the years demands that every door be open to everybody, as long as they try as hard as their favorite movie ended.

We now have an entire political party that is in touch with this demographic, and will stop at nothing to fuck up human ingenuity. I’m with SO o this. Obama never lived a real day in his life, and governs this country the exact same way.

Posted by on 06/16/09 at 08:42 PM from

Everyone guessed wrong, at the time the estimate was made, about what the state of the economy was at the moment this was passed.

Not “Everyone” guessed wrong about this, you dolt (and by “you dolt”, I mean that tool, Biden).  Some of us knew this would be a complete and utter failure from the start.  Unfortunately, too few of that group were of the “Anointed 535”.

At least someone on the “guessed wrong” side is willing to admit it.

Posted by AlexinCT on 06/17/09 at 05:23 AM from

The culture we have created over the years demands that every door be open to everybody, as long as they try as hard as their favorite movie ended.

I think you are being kind. From my personal experience it looks like they demand the door be open for everybody, even if they do not try at all and are totally unqualified.

We now have an entire political party that is in touch with this demographic, and will stop at nothing to fuck up human ingenuity.

Losers will always outnumber winners by big margins. It’s a question of mathematics. Once you do not have to worry about such passé things as morality (the real stuff, not the new age crap that passes for morality these days) or hold people accountable for their choices and actions (or lack their off), you can capitalize big on the resentment and jealousy that exists towards those that are not happy with the concept of misery for all.

Not “Everyone” guessed wrong about this, you dolt (and by “you dolt”, I mean that tool, Biden).  Some of us knew this would be a complete and utter failure from the start.  Unfortunately, too few of that group were of the “Anointed 535”.

Well said Surfpunk. If the tools in the MSM were doing even a fraction of real reporting, instead of covering for the collectivist losers now racing each other to see which one of them can come up with the dumbest idea and destroy the country the fastest, this tidbit of information would be front page news.

Posted by on 06/17/09 at 05:00 PM from

"Everyone guessed wrong”, as in everyone in the whitehouse.  And everyone who voted for those yokels. 

But there are other people in this country.  Other people who weren’t so easily led by around by the nose.  You know, real americans with and ounce or more of common sense.

<< Back to main