The Turnaround
There’s been more good news out of Iraq this weekend, which is always welcome, and which is probably why we haven’t heard so much about Iraq lately. The most recent example is this:
American and Iraqi forces are driving Al-Qaeda in Iraq out of its last redoubt in the north of the country in the culmination of one of the most spectacular victories of the war on terror.
After being forced from its strongholds in the west and centre of Iraq in the past two years, Al-Qaeda’s dwindling band of fighters has made a defiant “last stand” in the northern city of Mosul.
A huge operation to crush the 1,200 fighters who remained from a terrorist force once estimated at more than 12,000 began on May 10.
Operation Lion’s Roar, in which the Iraqi army combined forces with the Americans’ 3rd Armoured Cavalry Regiment, has already resulted in the death of Abu Khalaf, the Al-Qaeda leader, and the capture of more than 1,000 suspects.
The group has been reduced to hit-and-run attacks, including one that killed two off-duty policemen yesterday, and sporadic bombings aimed at killing large numbers of officials and civilians.
So much for Binny’s Boys. And on the political front, there’s this.
The Helsinki agreement, which was hammered out over meetings in September and April, was signed by 33 politicians from Sunni, Shiite, Kurdish, Turkmen, Communist and other parties.
The document consists of 17 principles, as well as strategies to ensure compliance with those goals. The principles included a commitment to eventually limit arms possession to the government, respect for minority rights and opposition to international and regional influence in Iraq’s internal affairs.
The agreement also included a pledge to integrate the so-called Awakening Councils, and others who have fought against extremists, into state institutions.
More like this, please-as far as I’m concerned, anything that can help us get out of there more quickly is a good thing. As Andrew Sullivan himself says:
We need to add all the usual caveats. This is Iraq. But if someone had told me a year ago that fifteen of eighteen benchmarks had been reached, that all the parties were in negotiation over future politics, that al Qaeda was close to dead at the hands of the US and the Iraqis, and that oil contracts were being handed out amid four-year lows in violence, I wouldn’t have believed them.
Of course, this all makes Obama’s 16 month withdrawal timetable more and more feasible. It really now is a question of prudence and strategy in how best to withdraw troops. Do you trust McCain to get them all out swiftly and prudently? Or do you trust Obama to get them all out prudently and swiftly? It’s a judgment call. And the options are better than they were six months ago.
This doesn’t mean that we should forget about the incompetence and arrogance of the Bush Administration or the nefarious crap they’ve pulled. I would say that the Iraqis are getting their act together in spite of and not necessarily because of Bush. The question, as he points out, is whether this helps McCain or Obama. I think it’s the latter, as it gives Obama the argument that we don’t need the kind of long-term presence McCain supports. A gradual withdrawal, which would have been called treasonous and reckless not too long ago, now seems more doable. IMO, the candidate who can give the better argument for it will win the election.
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i agree, ED all our adversary’s have to do is just sit tight...Wait for Obama to keep is pledge, adn they can have Iraq with out major action. if it looks like McCain is gonna win, the ratchet up the violence.
And WHY would we want to pull everyone out?
Of course, this all makes Obama’s 16 month withdrawal timetable more and more feasible. It really now is a question of prudence and strategy in how best to withdraw troops. Do you trust McCain to get them all out swiftly and prudently? Or do you trust Obama to get them all out prudently and swiftly?
Hm. Well, personally, I think I’ll go with the man who had been calling for the change in strategy that has led to this incredible turnaround. What the hell kind of logic is Sullivan using? His argument seems to be that because McCain turned out to be absolutely right about the surge, we should elect Obama, whose predictions about the effects of the McCain/Petraeus strategy ended up being flat-out wrong. This is the sort of lunacy Sullivan has been reduced to in his adoration for Obama: even when Barack gets the central foreign policy question of his career wrong, it’s further proof of his astounding judgment.
This doesn’t mean that we should forget about the incompetence and arrogance of the Bush Administration or the nefarious crap they’ve pulled.
Little chance of that happening around here is there?
nor should we…Little chance of that happening around here is there?
of topic:
you know i LOVE HDTV!>
i got my new samsung a few weeks ago, and here i am watching the Olympics trials. in High DEF!
i can see every mole ab, tan line camel toe hard nipple and protruding dick....
I cant wait for the Olympics.
You know what’s interesting? I’ve asked numerous times on here about what people think the end of the GWOT would be. One answer has always been something to the effect of the destruction of AQ in Iraq.
Well, here we have an article claiming this is so. Let’s assume, for now, that this is correct. Sullivan is right, it does indeed make 1 6-month timetable for withdrawal seem more likely.
But no! “See, it’s just a double-secret ploy by Amurka-hating terrists, who will lay low until their fellow Muslim Obama is elected, then they’ll spring back into action and take over!”
In other words, many of you guys want to have it both ways. You want to be able to claim progress in Iraq, but not so much progress that we could justify bringing home our beleaguered soldiers.
I think some people-not necessarily those on the blog, but die-hard Bush Republicans-have a vested interest in keeping the GWOT going for the next several years. They want to keep fighting with a Cold War mentality, they need to justify the Bush administration’s behavior, and they need an audience.
I think their time is coming to an end. They probably realize it, but don’t want to admit it-hence why you see so much bloviating, as Bill Spinzone would say, about how terrible things will be if we change course now. But that’s going to happen regardless. I don’t see either McCain or Obama necessarily returning us to a pre-WOT way of doing things, but I do see them taking us into a post-post 9-11 era.
In other words, many of you guys want to have it both ways. You want to be able to claim progress in Iraq, but not so much progress that we could justify bringing home our beleaguered soldiers.
OF course there has been progress, and you are right it can be played both ways.
the real shitter is, no matter how good we do fixing things, WE WILL HAVE to maintain a sizable operating force inside Iraq, for booth our own interests and for the sake of the Iraqis.
AS for the GWOT, it will be over when there is a change in how they, and their relgion relate to teh rest of teh world.
AKA, live and let live.
the real shitter is, no matter how good we do fixing things, WE WILL HAVE to maintain a sizable operating force inside Iraq, for booth our own interests and for the sake of the Iraqis.
Of that I have no doubt. I’m not particularly concerned with a long-term presence there, I think it’s a good thing. But as far as fighting their battles, or preventing revolution or civil war? Not our job.
AS for the GWOT, it will be over when there is a change in how they, and their relgion relate to teh rest of teh world.
AKA, live and let live.
Well, the GWOT will never end. Ever.
Ever.
Tthat is a long long time there friend, things do change.
I’m not particularly concerned with a long-term presence there, I think it’s a good thing
Iraqinawa?
Tthat is a long long time there friend, things do change.
No, I don’t think so. it took almost a thousand years for Europe to overcome its “divine right of kings” mindset. Change can happy, but it’s going to take a long time. It’s going to take a lot of bloodshed on the part of the Arab world. It’s going to require a degree of introspection and intellectual honesty which, frankly, I don’t think they possess. So, okay, maybe “ever” isn’t true, but it’s not going to happen any time in the next thousand years.
Iraqinawa?
Well, better to be in Iraq than in the holy land of Saudi Arabia. We’ve also got Jordan, the UAE, and other areas which are friendly and don’t carry the stigma of Mecca and Medina.
but it’s not going to happen any time in the next thousand years.
I was thinking more like 400-500 year, which is about the time since the Reformation, Enlightenment, Renaissance, of which they did not partake. I think they will have theirs now and it will take a similar amount of time to get to where the West is now.
No, I don’t think so. it took almost a thousand years for Europe to overcome its “divine right of kings” mindset. Change can happy, but it’s going to take a long time. It’s going to take a lot of bloodshed on the part of the Arab world. It’s going to require a degree of introspection and intellectual honesty which, frankly, I don’t think they possess. So, okay, maybe “ever” isn’t true, but it’s not going to happen any time in the next thousand years.
Sadly, it looks like you are right, however. One of teh biggest instruments of change is communication technologies, Mass media, radio, TV, Internet, are just now really having a impact of Muslim culture. I belive that this will be a majr factor in a faster rate of change there.
Apparently the Iraqis want a timetable for withdrawing troops:
“Now we are trying to reach a memorandum of understanding either to end the presence of the troops or a memorandum of understanding to reschedule their withdrawal,” al-Maliki said, according to his press office in Baghdad.
Hmmm. Timetable for withdrawal. What a horrible idea…
You want to be able to claim progress in Iraq, but not so much progress that we could justify bringing home our beleaguered soldiers.
No Lee, I want to claim progress in Iraq because there is progress in Iraq, and I dont want that progress to be used to prop up an entirely arbitrary number ( like 16 months) by Obama supporters. For all I know the number should be 8 months or 3 years. I wonder what Petraeus would think an effective timeline should be were he ordered to start withdrawaling.
Well, personally, I think I’ll go with the man who had been calling for the change in strategy that has led to this incredible turnaround. What the hell kind of logic is Sullivan using? His argument seems to be that because McCain turned out to be absolutely right about the surge, we should elect Obama, whose predictions about the effects of the McCain/Petraeus strategy ended up being flat-out wrong.
Couldnt have said it better.
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translation :
This makes Obama’s totally arbitrary 16 month timetable fit better in my( Sullivans) opinion, even though if we pick a date to be out by, it gives the people who want use out a timtetable to wait on. Thus possibly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Honestly is Sullivan even worth quoting anymore?