Right Thinking From The Left Coast
The price of anything is the amount of life you exchange for it - Henry David Thoreau

Everybody Panic Over Home Prices

God, I hate stories like this:

American homeowners will collectively lose more than $2 trillion in home value by the end of 2008, according to a report released Monday.

The real estate Web site Zillow.com calculated that home values have dropped 8.4% year-over-year during the first three quarters of 2008, compared with the same period of 2007.

Some 11.7 million Americans are now “underwater,” owing more on their mortgage balances than their homes are worth.

Zillow collects home values and analyzes home price trends in 163 markets; all but 30 registered price drops over the nine months ended Sept. 30, compared with the same nine-month period of 2007.

“This year marked the acceleration of the market correction, and is likely to end with the eighth consecutive quarter of declines in home values,” said Stan Humphries, Zillow’s vice president of data and analytics. “Homeowners in most areas we cover are struggling with foreclosures pouring into the market, large amounts of negative equity and dropping home values.”

We heard a lot of this the last time the market crashed.  It is absolute total complete garbage.  It is being flogged by a real estate website for political reasons, hoping that such dire reports will prompt government to step in and create another housing bubble.  It is inconceivable that a news site like CNN would make it their headline.

Why is it garbage?  Two reasons.  First, the obvious.  No asset or investment has lost value until you sell it.  If you hold on long enough, it will regain any value lost due to variation in the market.

But more importantly, houses were never worth what they were at that the top of the bubble.  To make such a comparison is just plain stupid.  Some of the value homes had—especially in hot markets—was completely illusory.  This is a market correction.  The people screaming about their houses losing their inflated value are no different than the Enron people screaming because their stock lost its mythical peak value (or me bitching about my Sun stock).  It was never worth that much.

True, some people bought at the peak of the market and are hurting now.  But if they hold on to those properties for long enough (and granted this might be decades), they’ll recover some, if not all, of their value.

If it bleeds, it leads, though.  CNN is apparently incapable of any critical thinking these days.

Posted by Hal_10000 on 12/15/08 at 09:36 AM (Discuss this in the forums)

Comments


Posted by on 12/15/08 at 10:48 AM from United States

CNN is apparently incapable of any critical thinking these days.

All the Major cable news outlets seem to have that problem these days, Hal.

Posted by Miguelito on 12/15/08 at 05:09 PM from United States

It is inconceivable that a news site like CNN would make it their headline.

Scaring people sells… it’s not a shocker to me.  Definitely not inconceivable.  Most of the MSM gave up on any real journalistic principles, in favor of maximizing profits, ages ago.

But more importantly, houses were never worth what they were at that the top of the bubble.

I still love the morons that whined about any projects being built in our neighborhood that might lower the value of their “$1/2 million homes” they were stupid enough to overpay for. 

According to zillow, my house is still worth ~$90k more then I paid for it.  Then again, I didn’t get suckered into buying a massively over-valued home.

True, some people bought at the peak of the market and are hurting now.  But if they hold on to those properties for long enough (and granted this might be decades), they’ll recover some, if not all, of their value.

If it’s your actual home (vs an investment/rental property) it shouldn’t really matter anyway.  Unless an unplanned move comes up, you’re going to continue living there, so who really cares what mythical “value” it has… you’re not selling.  Note that even insurance doesn’t massively rise according to market bubbles (at least mine didn’t) because the cost to actually replace the home is more realistic, based on the needed supplies and labor, vs what it might sell for.

Posted by on 12/16/08 at 12:06 PM from United States

You are forgetting about the “free market” developed noose on which they currently swing, the No-doc+ARM mortgage. Free of government regulation to tell them they were not operating in their best interests, Greenspan and the rest of the Ayn Rand dittoheads clutched their risk models and credit ratings like a security blanket through the Bush-Clinton years.

Without the Alt A or option ARM mortgage, this boom never would’ve occurred.”

It never would have occurred because without the Alt As and the option ARMs, many buyers never would have qualified for a loan. The banks and brokers were getting their money up front in fees, so the more they wrote, the more they made.

“They stopped checking whether the income was even real. They turned to low and no-doc loans, so-called ‘liar’s loans’ and jokingly referred to as ‘ninja loans.’ No income, no job, no assets. And they were still willing to lend,” Tilson says.

“But help me out here. How does that make sense for the lender? It would seem to be reckless, in the extreme,” Pelley remarks.

Why did the banks shoot themselves in the face? Because the CDS markets (unregulated) and the credit agencies (unregulated) made it look safe on paper. There was always a market for the mortgage, mine was bought-and-sold thrice in the first two years.

Government did create this bubble, but not in the way your talking points seem to be telling you. Rather than “loans to brown people”, the government failed to regulate a series of markets, layered on top of each other, which were easy for big investment houses to game. The only silver lining is that that it killed the entire industry (no pure-play investment houses left).

In other words, more government was needed. Not less.

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