In 2016, Hillary Clinton has:
- An arguable structural advantage in the electoral college.
- An incumbent President with an approval rating in the high 50’s.
- A media almost united behind her.
- An historically awful Republican candidate: a deeply disliked two-bit conman who knows nothing about policy and has a poor ground game in battleground states.
- A big funding advantage.
And, as of this morning, the campaign is basically a toss-up, according to 538’s analysis. There was a reason the Democrats rejected her in 2008 in favor of a freshman Senator. There was as reason the Democrats almost rejected her this year in favor of a 74-year-old crackpot Senator from Vermont. And that reason is not her extra X-chromosome. It’s because she’s a poor politician.