I call bullshit, but it has been made up shit for going on 7 years now

Surprisingly, job reports are out, drastically bucking the trend of the last few months in a major way. This seems to be a trend whenever elections are about to happen and the democrats are worried about the economic numbers, and, as I suspected, it happens because the numbers are rigged.

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  1. tomchamberlain

    I’m not sure I’d go so far as to say rigged.  I do think there is some validity to Welch’s theory because people on the left are, in my experience, more likely to integrate politics into their day to day lives. So I could see a left-leaning CEO waiting until the months leading up to an election to hire more people.  I wouldn’t call that rigging the numbers but if done en masse it would look the same.

    The larger point that I didn’t see in your links is the role of part-time jobs.  The one major flaw in the non-farm payroll report is it doesn’t distinguish between full-time and part-time jobs.  So say you are a full time worker who gets downgraded to part-time status which causes you to go out and get a night job to supplement your income.  The report will register a net gain of 1 job.

    The two largest gainers in this report were “Professional Business Services/Temporary Help” and “Leisure and Hospitality”.  Those are both places where you see a lot of part-time jobs.

    Hence you have an economy that supposedly added 571,000 jobs in the past three months while the labor participation rate stayed the same at 62.8 (or more accurately went down for May and June and then back up to 62.8 in July)

     

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  2. AlexInCT *

    The larger point that I didn’t see in your links is the role of part-time jobs.  The one major flaw in the non-farm payroll report is it doesn’t distinguish between full-time and part-time jobs.

    Correct. I should have pointed that out. The fact is that we have a artificial employment number that hides both the fact that there are a very large number of people in part-time jobs (as you point out) that would love to have a full time job. But the number of people doing crap jobs in the service industry instead of high paying jobs (manufacturing, and white collar jobs) is also at a record (as you point out as well). And let us not forget the labor participation rate. It is absolutely horrendous.

    If we had a republican president with these numbers the press would be calling it a depression and, they would call this months numbers rigged, a number designed/created for political gain.

    I measure the economy by what people in my neighborhood say when we get together. There has been nobody that has told me they see things turning for the better for going on 8 years now. In fact, most of them tell me they see things turning for the worse sooner than later. I have even had a couple of them sell their business and leave “The People’s Republic of Connecticut” for better pastures.

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