End Game

Last night came very close to ending the Presidential primaries. Trump won all five primaries by decisive margins, outpacing Cruz and Kasich combined by over 300,000 votes and taking, according to one analysis, 110 of the 118 delegates. Barring a complete collapse in Indiana and California, he is likely not only to have a plurality of delegates but a majority. The hopes of a contested convention would appear dashed.

This was obvious to me a while ago when Paul Ryan took himself out of the running for a contested convention. It would have been political suicide for him to offer himself as a candidate if Trump won. I think that Ryan, being one of the smartest people in politics, saw the writing on the wall and wanted no part of that. I also think this is why Christie and others have been flocking to Trump since this election season has shown that a) endorsements don’t ultimately make a difference in the outcome; b) endorsements do make a difference in cozying up to the nominee. And, the more I think about it, the more I think Cruz and Kasich saw this as well. The last few weeks, it has seemed more like they are running for 2020 than 2016.

So this is it. Trump 2016. Despite a media insistence that it wouldn’t happen, despite an onslaught of opposition, despite constant “gaffes”. I think we can finally retire the notion that media elites know what they’re talking about.

I don’t expect this will go well. Trump might win. His opponent is Hillary, after all. But the possibility of an electoral massacre looms large. Trump is trying to pivot to the center but I don’t see that working for two reasons: Trump can’t keep his damned mouth shut; Trump is already well-known. This isn’t like Romney where he could rebuild his image to a public that hadn’t been paying attention.

There will be a lot of post mortems and I’m sure the media will find a way to blame it on Southerners or something. But make no mistake: Trump won almost everyone in the GOP tent. He won the supposedly more intelligent and urbane East Coast elites by massive margins. The only people who opposed him were midwesterners and Mormons, the latter of whom overwhelmingly rejected him. So I don’t want to hear any more crap about the supposed intellectual deficiencies of people in flyover country or the supposed craziness of Mormons. They were the only ones who kept their wits about them.

Clinton won four of five states, increasing her delegate lead to the point of being insurmountable. I’m sure there will be a lot of post mortems of the Sanders campaign, too. My take? Well, Sanders did way better than anyone expected, mostly because people don’t like Hillary Clinton. But, in the end, Clinton had too many advantages: heavy support among blacks, backing of the party elites, support from unions and special interests, name recognition. Moreover, as the campaign went on, Sanders was exposed as a guy who was long on rhetoric and short on policy detail. His foreign policy credentials didn’t exist. His plan to pay for all his new spending didn’t work. His answers to detailed questions got increasingly evasive. You can only go so far with huge glittering promises of free shit.

So here we are: the contest no one wanted. Clinton v. Trump in the contest to see who the voters dislike more. If the Libertarian Party can’t get a significant part of the vote this year …

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  1. richtaylor365

    grady, why would you think those type of reactionaries would be looking at this blog?

    Well, Cruz did the ultimate Hail Mary and picked his VP, what a fiasco. I like Fiorina, could have voted for her as president, but like Carson before her, she hitched her wagon to a failed candidate. This is where we are today, how pathetic.

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  2. grady

    Rich, my statement was made in jest.

    With the mistakes made by the last 2 presidential administrations, I wonder how bad any particular president may make life for the rest of us.  I never thought we could sustain the level of debt we have now.  Americans have given up so much in terms of privacy and respect for the individual.  Life is still pretty good.

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  3. JimK

    I registered Libertarian this year. Fuck it. My vote is wasted anyway in a game this rigged (and certainly matters not at all here in blue blue blue Connecticut), so I may as well make it a protest vote. Because it’s either that or stay the hell home and watch it all burn while I stockpile ammo like a prepper.

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  4. AlexInCT

    Prepping used to be something people made fun off Jim, but I am starting to see that doing this was a wise move on my part…

    Can never have enough bullets…

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  5. repmom

    Any “if Trump wins I’m going to move out of the country” commitments?

    Stated in jest, as you say, but the truth is, it’s hard not to have that thought for either one (not that we would really ever do it) — Hillary or Trump.  We are so screwed.

    So here we are: the contest no one wanted. Clinton v. Trump 

    Yes, Trump’s decisive wins Tuesday seemed to seal it for him, leaving little hope of that contested convention. A “Never Trumper/OnlyRubio” supporter on Twitter stated the next morning “I have accepted the fact that Hillary Clinton will be our next President, and I am at peace with that.”

    I, too, have pretty much accepted that outcome, but I am far from “at peace” with it. I’m still overwhelmed that we have gotten to this point, that a man like Donald Trump, a rich spoiled brat, egotistical, disgusting human being who knows little about the issues and spends much of his time tweeting personal insults and name-calling, whose vocabulary is not much more advanced than my 5-year-old granddaughter’s, will be the Republican choice. How did this happen? We had plenty of better choices. Rubio was a better choice. What the hell, people?

    I just can’t vote for Trump in November, but something I read on Facebook this morning reminded me why Hillary would be so wrong, so destructive for our country — Supreme Court future vacancies.

    I’m just glad I don’t have to make a final decision until November. And the optimist in me still has a tiny bit of hope left that some miracle will happen, and I won’t have to choose between two equal evils.

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  6. richtaylor365

     Rich, my statement was made in jest.

    Sorry, you have not commented enough for me to get a handle on your wit. Both Hal and I have been consistent in our disapproval of Trump so I figured your comment emanated from  that.

    Life is still pretty good

    For some yes but definitely worthy of post by itself.

    I, too, have pretty much accepted that outcome, but I am far from “at peace” with it. 

    Initially I felt the same way but this election has turned pretty much every political constant on it’s head so I rule nothing out. Who knows, Comey might grow a pair and listen to all his investigative agents who are demanding a fealty to the rule of law and indict Hillary. More criminal conduct could unfold re: her pay for play attitude with her foundation, Even her health might betray her.


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  7. repmom

    Perhaps, but, of course, we wish no ill will on her health-wise. Jail time would be sweet. So very sweet.

    But then, we still have Trump. Unless, that small miracle…

    Indiana? California?

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  8. grady

    Both Hal and I have been consistent in our disapproval of Trump so I figured your comment emanated from  that.

    It did, but was entirely intended in humor.

    I know that you, Hal and Repmom do not like the idea of Trump and it is easy to see why.  He is obnoxious beyond reason.  But I have seen Obama and Hillary do many disgusting things in a very “presidential” manner.  Does it matter that Trump may win the nomination Jerry Springer style?  I used to think it would matter.  Now I’m so disgusted with politics that I’m not sure anymore.

    If Trump ends up with the nomination, take some time and let the shock settle out and then read some of his policy positions on his website.  You will likely never respect the man.  His stated ideas sound pretty good.  Maybe he would even live up to them.

    Hoping for an indictment of Hillary?  I can’t see it happening.  The Clintons have been teflon.

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  9. richtaylor365

    Hoping for an indictment of Hillary?

    What I am hoping for is some demonstration that the rule of law still means something. When one person is above the law, then we are NOT a nation of laws but a totalitarian autocracy where liberty is not guaranteed, except to the privileged and powerful, no thanks. Laws were broken;

    He says Clinton’s actions in the e-mail scandal clearly satisfy all five requirements necessary to sustain charges of mishandling classified material, and constitute a breach perhaps even more glaring than the one for which General David Petraeus was convicted.

    There is no time limit on how long Attorney General Loretta Lynch and the DOJ can take in reviewing the FBI’s recommendation and the evidence on which it’s based. But if the Department of Justice gives the signal that they’re going to ignore the FBI’s investigations, or drag out their own review past election day, Cuccinelli — along with Judge Andrew Napolitano, Roger Stone, Charles Krauthammer, and other observers — predicts that Comey will resign in protest, and other high-level FBI officials could follow him out the door.

     take some time and let the shock settle out and then read some of his policy positions on his website

    I am familiar with his policy positions, as familiar as one can be considering that he is all over the map and has been known to change positions almost daily (women should be punished for having abortions, then retracted/we are going to kill all the families of the terrorists, then retracted/I will order my military to extract information from terrorists including torture regardless of any international treaties we are a part of that bans such conduct, then retracted/I am going to lower taxes for everyone, but oh, the rich need to pay more so their taxes will be raised) and on and on.

    His stated ideas sound pretty good

    What ideas are those? That we are going to win again, that we will actually get tired of winning? His speech yesterday (thank God he is finally using a teleprompter and not speaking off the cuff) included the promise that we are not going to get involved in foreign wars anymore, then he says that we have to go after ISIS, so which is it? Then he says that we are going to take their oil. Here is a history lesson for Trump, America  is not an imperialist nation, we do not get into conflicts for territory or treasure, we do it to protect ourselves and our own security.

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