The UK Votes

The UK election is going tonight. It’s looking close. The Tories may win more seats by the Scottish National Party is set to win all of Scotland and may join with Labour to form a government (which may end up resulting in Scottish Independence).

I mildly support the Tories but the key word is mildly. Cameron has reigned in the out-of-control spending binge of the previous Labour government. But he has also supported some of the starkest internet censorship in the Western world.

We’ll see what happens.

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  1. AlexInCT

     

    There is something of note about this election that I have yet to hear anyone talk about. Maybe it is too early, but the predictions and the media campaign up until they started doing exit polls had the race so close that it couldn’t be called. Then come the exit polls and it is a runaway election with everyone baffled. British media, with a few exceptions, like the US media, is overwhelmingly populated with hardcore leftists agents that shill for the left.

     

    I content the media campaign to pretend this was a close election was all bullshit. I suspect that the polling prior to the election was faulty, rigged/biased, or worse, a combination of all that to keep people engaged, as the left controlled media saw the writing on the wall, and desperately tried to keep turnout for their political group of choice in play. That strategy failed.

     

    Britain is floundering along with every one of the Euro nations using the super heavy nanny state model that the left in the US so desires we could emulate. From the every European I know, but especially the many that have finally seen the light and have lost their crush on this marxist nonsense and its inability to deliver what is promised, I hear the same thing: this social state model is unsustainable. The main complaint is that while their taxation has remained the same or gone up, what they used to get back for those high taxes has been rolled back to levels that leave them scratching their heads when considering the cost vs. reward model.

     

    I am glad the Brits wizened up. The nanny state is unsustainable. And yes, I know that the European right is just called that because they are right of the rabid marxists that form the left, but the fact remains that the shift is happening. The rabid left has destroyed the world’s economy by propping up a system that under the guise of serving the less fortunate became a massive and costly vote buying scheme for a corrupt political class. I am hoping that this is a sign of the times and that people, especially the middle class that is under attack by the massive nanny state apparatus in the Western democracies, are finally saying that enough is enough.

    Death to runaway collectivism.

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  2. Hal_10000 *

    Alex, I don’t think the polls were a conspiracy.  Polls are off, sometimes by a lot. In parliamentary elections, they are especially fickle as you have multiple parties and it’s difficult to predict 650 elections accurately. UKIP didn’t hurt the Tories as much as some people thought. The SNP completely wiped out Labour, which was possible, but surprising.  Five-thirty-eight has a good breakdown, basically saying that people underestimate how uncertain polls are (which is why they work with probability distributions). And there was some noise in the betting markets as the Tories surged hard in the last few days.

    But we’ve seen polls underpredict for liberals as well, most notably in the 2000 election.  RealClearPolitics famously predicted a Bush landslide because they overestimate his polling and way overestimate how much support Nader would pull away from Gore.

    (And the Tories are well left of the GOP.)

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  3. Hal_10000 *

    One pleasant think about the election: Paul Krugman is having a hissy fit this morning.  Among other things, he’s claiming that Labour’s pre-financial-crisis spending binge — which doubled UK spending and sent it as a percent of GDP from 36 to 50% — was not fiscally profligate.

    Christ, what does that man consider profligacy?

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  4. InsipiD

    One pleasant think about the election: Paul Krugman is having a hissy fit this morning.  Among other things, he’s claiming that Labour’s pre-financial-crisis spending binge — which doubled UK spending and sent it as a percent of GDP from 36 to 50% — was not fiscally profligate.
    Christ, what does that man consider profligacy?

    I assume that he’d consider anything short of 100% insufficient, and maybe over 100% would be too much.  Maybe.

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  5. AlexInCT

    Alex, I don’t think the polls were a conspiracy. Polls are off, sometimes by a lot. In parliamentary elections, they are especially fickle as you have multiple parties and it’s difficult to predict 650 elections accurately.

    Hal, even accounting for this, considering the actual results, you have to assume that people were lying something wicked about how they planned to vote when polled, that the pollsters made a ridiculous mistake choosing the sampling, that people somehow made drastic changes to how they would vote as they went to the polls, or that there was a combination of all of that in play to reflect how wrong they polls were. Me, I don’t believe in that sort of confluence/coincidence , despite the fact that I believe the media is replete with idiots. The analogy that they just got things that wrong simply flies in the face of logic. Instead, based on past history and media behavior, not just in the US, but in the UK as well, I am going to use Occam’s razor. It’s far simpler to assume they just produced the results they wanted, by design or otherwise, and it was because they didn’t want to accept or believe in the alternative.

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  6. Hal_10000 *

    There’s a long history in the UK of the “shy tory effect”.  The Tories have outperformed the polls by an average of 3% over the last four decades (they missed by about 9 points in 1992). Pollsters have tried to fix this but it keeps eluding them.  2005 and 2010 came close but this one was way off.

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  7. ilovecress

    Alex, you do realise that ‘the media’ don’t conduct the polls, right? The parties use them for strategy. So if anything it would be a right wing conspiracy – I mean, they did win. For a left wing conspiracy it backfired pretty spectacularly.

    There’s heaps of post-mortems going on, but the sense I get from Facebook and the like is that no one seems to be sad that milliband lost out, just that the Tories won. The lefties spent their time tactical voting, keeping UKIP out, pissing off Scotland, punishing Lib Dems and trying to get more green representation.

    All those on the right had to do was put a cross in the blue box.

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  8. Hal_10000 *

    Cress, I was reading that too: that with the lose of the lib dems, the conservatives not actually represent less of the electorate than they did before.  This is one of the issues with multi-party parliamentary systems.  Alberta just voted out the conservatives for the first time in generations, but it was the same thing: the right wing vote fractured and one party won a plurality.

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  9. CM

    Almost exactly like here last year Cress. The left had a variety of options, the right had one. Did you vote in the UK election?

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  10. Hal_10000 *

    The left had a variety of options, the right had one. Did you vote in the UK election?

    Actually, didn’t the right have UKIP as well?

    Someone showed me a map the other day that overlapped Labour seats with former coal mines.  It was very closely matched.  The 84-85 strike still looms over UK elections.

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  11. CM

    Actually, didn’t the right have UKIP as well?

    Yeah that’s true.

    Someone showed me a map the other day that overlapped Labour seats with former coal mines.  It was very closely matched.  The 84-85 strike still looms over UK elections.
    Not too surprising though – so many communities and towns were absolutely devastated. People don’t forget.

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