Hillary In

Well, it’s official. Hillary has announced her candidacy. I know that’s a shock. Personally, I think she should go with this slogan:

The 2008 election was very fun to blog because so much was uncertain. Hillary seemed inevitable but then Obama beat her. McCain was declared dead but roared back. It was completely unpredictable. 2012 was fun, in its way, but we all knew it would be Romney in the end.

I’m dreading this election because what is there to say? We’ve had 24 years to see how corrupt and petty the Clintons can be and yet there are enough kool-aid drinkers to make this happen. Our only hope is that some even more massive corruption is found (always a possibility with these people). But even then, I think the Democrats will go ahead and nominate her. She could club baby seals and they’d still nominate her. She could throttle orphans on TV and they’d still nominate her. Hell, she could announce that she’s a Republican and wants to bust unions and they’d still probably nominate her. The thought of 4-8 more years of the Clintons may be enough to get me to vote Republican for the first since 2000.

I don’t, however, think Clinton’s ultimate election is unavoidable. To quote me:

What the hell is Hillary’s campaign going to be about?

Seriously. What issues is she going to run on? She can’t run on Obama’s record since it isn’t that hot and Obama is unpopular. But she can’t run against it without splitting the party.

Healthcare? That used to be her issue but we have Obamacare and that’s quite enough, thank you. Foreign policy? The economy? None of those are winners for her. In the end, I suspect Hillary’s campaign will come down to “it’s my turn” and I just don’t see the voters jumping on that. They didn’t with McCain in 2008. Or Dole in 1996.

As I see it, she has two options. One is to hope that the economy is doing great, the world is settled down, the scandals blow over and Obamacare becomes popular. Then she can run on a campaign of continuing those policies. And also doing something about all the pigs flying through the air.

The other option … and I suspect that given the realities of Obama’s tenure, this is where she’ll go … is Republicans Be Crazy. She’ll attempt to portray them as deranged lunatics who want to end Medicare, take away your health insurance, crash the economy and start a war. She’ll rally the various parts of the Democratic coalition and try to isolate the Republicans to only representing old white Christian men. Such a campaign would be nasty and divisive but I strongly suspect this is the road she’ll take.

Because, that’s the other reminder in this story. The Clintons talk nice when they have nothing to gain or lose. But when it comes to something they want — be it a plea bargain or the White House — they will scorch the fucking Earth to get there.

It will require a tremendous and concentrated effort by the Republican Party to derail her train, but it can be done. Especially as I think a lot of people are contemplating Clinton II with the same dread I am.

Right now, the only official Republican candidates are Rand Paul and Ted Cruz. I don’t think either of them has much of a chance. While the GOP may flirt with outsider candidates, they always end up nominating someone mainstream: Reagan, Bush, Dole, Bush II, McCain. Romney was so sensible you could have marketed him as a floor wax.

But that may be a strength this year. The Democrats and their allies are so busy portraying Cruz and Paul as crazy nutjobs that when the Republicans end up nominating someone sensible like Scott Walker or Jeb Bush, what are they going to say? I know what they’ll say but why would people listen?

(This was a similar dynamic to 2012. The Democrats kept telling us that Newt was crazy, Caine was crazy, Santorum was crazy, Bachman was crazy. So when Romney won the nomination, they were out of ammunition. Romney lost, of course, but he did outpoll the Republican Party nationally and was even leading for a while. And I don’t see Clinton as having Obama’s political guile.)

Gun to my head, I would say the GOP candidate is most likely to be Jeb Bush or Scott Walker. Rick Perry could surprise as could Rick Santorum. But I keep getting this sneaking suspicion in my gut that the future GOP nominee is someone we’re not talking about right now.

Election 2016 is still dull and a long way away. But it could get exciting fast if the right Republican comes along.

(Possible thread for the comments: put out your own dark horse GOP candidate and how you think he’d do.)

Comments are closed.

  1. Hal_10000 *

    Ok, I’ll kick things off: my dark horse candidate is …. Mitch Daniels.

    Why?

    Daniels is a former governor, so he has executive experience. He cut taxes and spending, passed a right to work law. And when I saw him give the response to Obama’s 2012 SOTU, he just crossed me as Presidential.

    Plus, he brings something to the table that might swing some young voters. A President of Purdue, he froze tuition and cut bureaucracy. One of the biggest concerns now is the Higher Ed bubble and Daniels has shown the way to do something about it.

    He probably won’t run and I don’t think he has any backing within the party.  But if I were Emperor of the GOP, he’d definitely be on my list.

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  2. Technomad

    Scott Walker would be a fun candidate, if only because he makes so many liberals’ heads asplode.  I can just imagine the slander campaign that they’d gin up, though—the smearing Sarah Palin got would be nothing to it.  However, he’s already been through the mill a couple of times, and they’d have a hard time finding new things to slime him with.

     

    And I’d love love love a Walker-Palin presidency!

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  3. evanshrugged

    Really disappointed in Walkers pandering as of late. Why no mention of Rubio? He seems like the most electable person in the group.

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  4. Xetrov

    Her Twitter announcement said:

    “I’m running for president. Everyday Americans need a champion, and I want to be that champion. –H”

    I can’t help but think the end to that needs to be, “…except Ambassador Stevens.”

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  5. Biggie G

    I have no idea what I would do if I have to choose between a Clinton and a Bush again.

    I don’t hate Palin, but I don’t think she is a serious candidate.  I think she likes being kingmaker and will be too devisive.  I don’t think we need to settle on a “safe” candidate, just someone who the media is not already salivating over destroying.

    As far as a dark horse, I have no idea.  I thought I followed politics a lot, but I don’t know too many details about many governor’s records outside my state, and I don’t want Christie.

    I’d like someone young and new.  The GOP has seemed to have cleared out the bench.  There doesn’t seem to be an old guy hanging around who everyone thinks deserved a shot and that is a good thing.  Bill Clinton came out of nowhere.

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  6. Xetrov

    Dark Horse – I’d like to see more from Jindal.  I was very impressed with his speech back in 2009, and it appears he’s done well as Governor in a difficult state.  Anyone who manages to piss off the education lobby is golden in my book.

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  7. richtaylor365

    Romney lost, of course,

    With no help from you, apparently;

     The thought of 4-8 more years of the Clintons may be enough to get me to vote Republican for the first since 2000.

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  8. Hal_10000 *

    Why no mention of Rubio? He seems like the most electable person in the group.

    He’s electable but I don’t think he has the kind of backing that Bush and maybe Walker will command.  He also has a lot less of a record to run on. Democrats may go all faint and blushing over a half- or one-term Senator, but I don’t really see the GOP rank and file doing the same thing.

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  9. ilovecress

    I think you’ve hit the nail on the head there with Hillary. Because she’s been the presumptive nominee for the past ten years, she’s run out of things to run on. Us ‘anti establishment, ant status quo, anti corporatist’ lefties are going to have a problem once we’ve got bored of whooping and hollering at the mention of her name. What’s she actually going to run on that’ll get the left excited? Obamacare? That’ll just be a defensive play. Economy? She’s not been visible on that – any wins are Obamas, and any losses are entrenched in the system. Social issues? The Republicans can be smart and counter that.

    We’re progressives. By nature we want change. The wife of the president from the 90’s, who is heavily backed by Wall Street is going to get boring very quickly when we get used to the fact that she has a vagina.

    Smart Republican strategy can win this, but I think it’ll need to be a riskier choice than a Romney. Everyone is fatigued, and that’s not helped by the presumptive nature of the narrative around Hillary. Adding some excitement to the election will work in the Rs favour.

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  10. CM

    I think she’ll go with Republicans Be Crazy to some extent, but will be also probably realise that she starts with around 91% of the required Electoral Votes needed, so it’s hers to lose. That might mean she can be adaptable to the situation rather than imposing herself with a strong brand.

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  11. Hal_10000 *

    The wife of the president from the 90’s, who is heavily backed by Wall Street is going to get boring very quickly when we get used to the fact that she has a vagina.

    I literally LOL’d.

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  12. Hal_10000 *

    Was thinking about Rubio more today and I think he does have a decent chance.  There’s a lot of enthusiasm for him.  Still think Bush and Walker are the front-runners, but Rubio might stay in for a while.

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  13. InsipiD

    The biggest problem with Hillary as a candidate is that she will be portrayed as the second coming of Bill (I know, phrasing) and far too many voters are ignorant enough to fall for it.  The democrats are far past that level of socialism today.  If she gets elected, I’ll probably get underloaf cancer from hearing her voice.

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  14. Biggie G

    Is there a chance she doesn’t make it past the primary?  2008 was supposed to be hers.  A friend of mine had a theory that we do not move back a generation when we elect a president.  Electing Obama moved us past the Vietnam generation.  Hillary would be a step back.  It will get tiring though, pointing out all the times she gets defended for the exact things they attacked Republicans for.

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  15. InsipiD

    If only a red arrow pointing to the right out of the “blue” (they sure got that backwards) in any way meant what it looks like…

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  16. HARLEY

    Wasn’t she like near death   year or so ago, unable to appear publicly, unable to go before congress, having Brain and vision problems????????

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