«

»

The Wrong Skew

Well, it seems like Obamacare is finally working. Two million people are signed up, so obviously this is … oh:

Now that more than 2 million people have signed up for private insurance plans created by President Barack Obama’s healthcare law, a crucial next check-up for the new marketplace will be to see how old customers are.

Early data from a handful of state exchanges shows the administration needs more young adults to sign up in the next three months to help offset costs from older enrollees and prevent insurers from raising their rates.

Critics of Obama’s Affordable Care Act say the market won’t attract enough young people to keep it financially viable, putting more pressure on government funds to compensate for any insurer losses.

Data from seven states and the District of Columbia, which are running their own marketplaces, show that of more than 200,000 enrollees, nearly 22 percent are 18 to 34 years old, according to a Reuters analysis.

The administration had hoped that over 38 percent, or 2.7 million, of all enrollees in 2014 would be 18 to 35 years old, based on a Congressional Budget Office estimate that 7 million people would sign up by the end of March.

Now, to be fair, these are early numbers and there is some data showing that the most recent signups skew as young and healthy as Obama wants them to. However, we are once again seeing how this Obamacare thing is like a house of cards. The insurers offered rates based on a projection of seven million signups with 2.7 million of those from young healthy people. That lower number is a critical card in the house. Without young people paying identical rates to older ones but using less care, the system becomes a massive money pit. Suddenly, you’ve got a way more expensive group of patients than you anticipated.

That leads to another card: an insurer bailout. To keep the insurance market from completely imploding, the government is poised to bail out their losses if this happens (these bailouts are euphemistically called “risk corridors”). Republicans want to repeal this, which would bring the entire house crashing down. But really, it’s a matter of timing. You can’t go on forever with a zombie insurance industry.

8 comments

No ping yet

  1. Seattle Outcast says:

    Why would the young and healthy bother signing up? What is their motivation?

    It’s not as if they are getting married young, having kids, and have a mortgage – nearly all of them in this crucial age group are either still on their parent’s policy, in the military, or already getting insurance through work. The remainder don’t have two dimes to rub together, don’t pay taxes, and won’t have to pay a “fine”…

    Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

      
  2. AlexInCT says:

    Why would the young and healthy bother signing up? What is their motivation?

    SOCIAL JUSTICE!

    That or some other such wealth transfer scheme made to look like a good thing.

    I think Obamacare will be the best lesson for these wet behind the ears public school & liberul arts college products on why wealth transfer schemes are nothing but using the coercive power of government to steal from one group to buy votes from another.

    My favorite was the sob story I heard from this liberal dude I know who claims his mom gave up on the whole thing when she waited on the phone for over 4 hours to talk to someone because they told her at the emergency room that they couldn’t find any record of her being signed up. Mind yout this comes after they forcibly enrolled her in Medicaid and slapped her with some pretty nasty fees, according to her dolt of a son. That Obamacare love is dying a gruesome death amongst these people that thought they were getting easy free shit.

    This thing is a scandal, but all the LSM can focus on is the dude from Jersey they worry will run against Billary.

    Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

      
  3. Hal_10000 says:

    It’s not as if they are getting married young, having kids, and have a mortgage – nearly all of them in this crucial age group are either still on their parent’s policy, in the military, or already getting insurance through work. The remainder don’t have two dimes to rub together, don’t pay taxes, and won’t have to pay a “fine”…

    Holy shit, SO, I don’t think I thought of that. HALF of their target demographic are still eligible under their parents plan anyway!!

    Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

      
  4. AlexInCT says:

    Holy shit, SO, I don’t think I thought of that. HALF of their target demographic are still eligible under their parents plan anyway!!

    You think they missed that by accident or on purpose?

    Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

      
  5. HARLEY says:

    Holy shit, SO, I don’t think I thought of that. HALF of their target demographic are still eligible under their parents plan anyway!!’

    You think they missed that by accident or on purpose?

    tell me again that obamacare was not set up to fail.. , the insures go to the brink of bankruptcy, Vola ! Bailout! citizen get po at insurers for being bailed out.. demand action,
    the whole system is seen as a giant mess… turn to the government to save everyone….., vola Single payer.

    Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

      
  6. CM says:

    Major health laws always follow the same pattern: The people who badly need insurance sign up first, and they tend to be older and sicker. Younger people sign up later — typically right before the penalty hits. So far, the age pattern in Obamacare enrollment is tracking the age pattern in enrollment for the Massachusetts reforms quite closely.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/01/14/the-death-of-obamacares-death-spiral/

    Thumb up 2 Thumb down 3

      
  7. Seattle Outcast says:

    Isn’t that sweet – our favorite Obama cocksucker from another country is here to lecture again with made up data….

    Thumb up 2 Thumb down 4

      
  8. AlexInCT says:

    Major health laws always follow the same pattern:

    If the pattern is to fail miserably and eventually collapse under its own weight while providing decades of subpar care, then we agree. But even you will have to admit that this rollout takes the cake for the level of mediocrity it has achieved.

    And if I go by what you want us to believe is the pattern, the problem is that reality always overcomes the progressive illusion of how things should be. Sure, government can pass more laws to force/coerce the behavior it wants (or in this case the can just do things by fiat and completely ignore/violate the system of law making the country has in place), but eventually even that won’t be enough to sustain the unsustainable. It will become yet another inefficient system, rife with abuse and providing nothing but low quality output when most needed, that serves primarily as a vote buying scheme.

    But let’s keep defending the indefensible.

    Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

      

Comments have been disabled.