You really should read Dave Kopel’s (PDF) prepared testimony for yesterday’s hearing on the assault weapons ban. It’s absolutely devastating to the case for it, showing that it is nebulous, far-reaching and likely to be ineffective at best.
“Doing something” is the slogan for politicians who seek merely to exploit terrible crimes for self-serving purposes. “Doing something effective” is the approach of people who want to save lives and protect the public, especially children.
The lives of Americans, especially school children, depend on the choice that elected officials make between these two alternatives.
The Left is focusing on a fairly minor academic dispute about a study on the previous assault weapons ban. That dispute seems to me to revolve around the definition of “worked”. For most people, the criteria for the assault weapons ban working would be that it reduced crime. It didn’t, or at least it can’t be clearly shown (the data are a bit noisy and a LOT of policies changed in the 90′s). But to the gun grabbers, “worked” means it got weapons out of the hands of Americans. If it reduced crime, that’s nice but not really the point.
We can quibble about what the study found. But the reason so much attention has been paid to that quibble is because the rest of Kopel’s case is just devastating. As I said earlier, it is not we who have to justify our ownership of any particular firearm. It is the government that must justify restricting it. It just got a lot harder to justify an assault weapons ban; at least at the federal level.
31 comments
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stogy says:
February 1, 2013 1:38 am at 1:38 am (UTC -4)
Actually, he has cherry-picked all of his data from the UK to make his case – violent crime has been falling there for most of the past decade, despite strict gun controls. It would have been more honest and convincing if he had included a discussion of that, and why his case still holds. The fact that he doesn’t marks this report as partisan politics rather than a real search for the truth.
I’d like to see someone go through this whole report and offer counter-arguments to all the points. Unfortunately, I don’t have time right now, and some of the more technical firearm and legal aspects are not really in my area of expertise.
The thumbs down arrow is just below here. Don’t let yourselves down now with reasoned debate or qualified arguments.. Just click ;)
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Section8 says:
February 1, 2013 9:52 am at 9:52 am (UTC -4)
LOL
Reasoned debate is he’s full of shit because I say so? I’d prove it but I don’t have the technical expertise or time?
Anyhow, we’ve seen your reasonable debate.
Guns = Guys getting drunk and shooting their wives. Just a load of shit. Yes it does happen, but what an abusive person uses to kill their family is irrelevant. It’s the abusive person that is the problem.
Guns = Suicide even though there are countries with strict gun control laws the have higher suicide rates than we do.
Every argument you’ve made so far has been emotional based with the idea that if you don’t support gun control you don’t care about the above.
Just silly
Xetrov says:
February 1, 2013 9:57 am at 9:57 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, the gun grabbers haven’t done that at all.
Hal_10000 says:
February 1, 2013 11:52 am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)
I’d like to see something on that, Stogy. He acknowledge that the murder rate is higher in the UK, but claims other crimes are more common.
stogy says:
February 1, 2013 2:00 pm at 2:00 pm (UTC -4)
Just Google crime rates in the UK. It took me less than a minute. They’re falling in the UK just like they are across most of the developed world. Guns weren’t behind the rise in crime any more than they are behind the fall. Except perhaps that carrying gives police a nice excuse to lock up street thugs.
Thanks for raising this. I hadn’t got around to it, but yeah. Kopel left out domestic violence. Why do you suppose he would do that? Do you think if he had discussed it and made some good arguments why firearms were a good idea in domestic disputes it would have been a stronger report? It’s a no brainer – he left it out because it was an argument he was never going to wine and so it was better to cherry pick a couple of stronger issues rather deal with the whole kabuki. It makes the report partisan and not a solid piece of research.
And it’s usually the innocent party that gets clocked.
So what’s your plan to lower firearms deaths and injuries as a result of domestic violence without reducing the number of firearms? We already know that reducing the number of firearms works because it has worked in just about every other country in the world right? So if you don’t to reduce the number of guns you must have some other plan? Right? You do have a plan, don’t you?
No, you’re right, there is a fair bit of bunkum coming out of the anti-gun lobby. But this study is absolute drivel and does nothing at all to support your argument while it leaves out one of the largest groups of people affected by gun violence.
I already realize that nothing I say is going to change your mind, and that’s basically because you like guns. So any data that comes up showing the opposite of what you desire is going to be laughed or talked away.
It’s a perfect example of a confirmation bias.
stogy says:
February 1, 2013 2:05 pm at 2:05 pm (UTC -4)
The sociology of crime and the crime stats I know something about. Trigger locks, guns safes, and them watchemacallit things you load the ammo into are not. I am also not really up on all the proposals on gun law changes that have been flying around the past month or so. So I am not going to get into that.
I have to work all weekend as it is.
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Xetrov says:
February 1, 2013 2:06 pm at 2:06 pm (UTC -4)
Like them? I Love them!
BTW, you’re an asshat for assuming people’s responses before they give them. Also one of the big reasons you get thumbs down from me (since you’re apparently so concerned by them), instead of intellectual fact based responses. If you already know how I’m going to respond…sodder off.
Xetrov says:
February 1, 2013 2:13 pm at 2:13 pm (UTC -4)
*sod off. (Damn edit button that doesn’t edit anything!)
stogy says:
February 1, 2013 2:23 pm at 2:23 pm (UTC -4)
Xetrov – we talked about this in another thread a couple of weeks back. There was fairly general agreement here the commenters here liked guns. So I am no assuming responses from you, just picking up from where I left off.
And every time I post on this, I get called out for using emotional arguments (“think of the children”) or accusing gun owners of not caring enough (“Every argument you’ve made so far has been emotional based with the idea that if you don’t support gun control you don’t care about the above”). It’s not emotional – it’s factual. The data clearly shows that lower gun ownership = much lower domestic homicide rates. It shows it over and over again. States in the US with higher gun ownership invariably have higher homicide rates, regardless of the strictness of gun laws and legislation. I posted links to this a couple of weeks ago, so I am not planning to again. This is no more an emotional argument than arguing the right to defend your home.
You want to keep your guns and bring down domestic violence using firearms? Find another solution, but don’t whine to me that “they’re gonna take ouwa guns!”. It’s pathetic
I asked for a balance sheet approach – costs of gun ownership vs benefits. That’s a report I would like to see. And without the cherrypicked arguments or data.
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stogy says:
February 1, 2013 2:29 pm at 2:29 pm (UTC -4)
Let’s go with the first one, shall we?
Section8 says:
February 1, 2013 4:17 pm at 4:17 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, the plan should be to just reduce domestic violence period. No I don’t have a solution to that, I have some ideas. Your idea, however, of punishing the VAST amount of people who DON’T abuse anyone by claiming ALL are guilty is ridiculous, and a warped ass view of the populous of our nation. By the way, you only seem to care about domestic violence when it involves a gun. I’ll just assume some guy punching her to death is just fine with you, and only when a gun is involved does it matter since now her sacrifice has provided you a statistic.
Iconoclast says:
February 1, 2013 5:26 pm at 5:26 pm (UTC -4)
And violent crime has been falling here in the States for several decades, “in spite of” increased gun ownership and not-as-strict gun controls.
Harvard Study: Gun Control Is Counterproductive
Gun crime continues to decrease, despite increase in gun sales
RKBA: Crime down…gun ownership up, that can’t be right.
From that last link, which happens to be Daily KOS:
And (emphasis in original):
stogy says:
February 1, 2013 9:29 pm at 9:29 pm (UTC -4)
Section 8, that’s because I see gun ownership as a responsibility at least as much as it’s a right. That doesn’t mean I treat people as though they are guilty, it means that as they are using a tool which is capable of causing death, that there are certain rules and regulations that need to be followed.
Unfortunately, the second amendment has taken almost all talk of responsibility off the table.
Iconoclast, I have seen the Harvard Study, and I commented on it before. It uses the same cherry-picked arguments as the Kopel report (and the data used has come under fire). You don’t compare gun laws with crime, you compare gun ownership rates with crime rates (from another Harvard study):
And despite a rise in gun sales, the overall proportion of Americans who own guns is in long-term decline. So much of the recent increase (there has been a slight spike since the GFC) in sales means that fewer people are owning more guns. A person’s ability to commit a crime does not substantially increase depending on the number of guns they have (with a few rare exceptions, such as gun massacres). So fewer people owning more guns with a gradual long-term decline in the crime rate and a faster fall in the homicide rate?
I fully admit that the causes of crime are complex and that gun ownership is not automatically causally related to crime rates. But there is fairly strong evidence that lower gun ownership rates result in lower and less lethal forms of domestic violence. Studies that leave out domestic violence are not studies at all.
stogy says:
February 1, 2013 9:41 pm at 9:41 pm (UTC -4)
I wanted to qualify this (but edit continues not to work). I am not saying that gun owners are irresponsible – most are. What I am saying is that the second amendment removes the issue of responsibility from the debate, and makes it all about rights.
Poosh says:
February 1, 2013 10:30 pm at 10:30 pm (UTC -4)
This is false. At the very least it is highly debatable. Crime statistics are notoriously a minefield. You can find sites claiming crime has lowered. You can find sites claiming crime has risen. Claims that violent crime in the UK has lowered is quite frankly laughable, imo, but I suppose if you live in a middle class area and read The Guardian you might think Things Can Only Get Better.
Britain IS as bad as some of you are starting to pick up on.
stogy says:
February 1, 2013 11:08 pm at 11:08 pm (UTC -4)
haha. That’s not what people usually say about Guardian readers. I enjoyed reading your piece on Judith Butler, btw.
And who said anything about the Guardian? I used the most recent Home Office stats:
and
and on firearms and knives?
Down, down, down seems to be the trend overall, except for people’s perceptions of crime rates:
FPrefect89 says:
February 2, 2013 1:48 am at 1:48 am (UTC -4)
Yes. We have no responsibility. Just as if I fire my gun “accidentally” it is not called a negligent discharge of a firearm. Also, if that negligent discharge of a firearm happens to injure somebody, there could be a potential homicide charge added. That is just the criminal part of it. There is then the victim or victim’s family that will come after me for damages.
Nope, no responsibility there.
CM says:
February 2, 2013 4:26 am at 4:26 am (UTC -4)
stogy I get the distinct impression that Poosh gets his ‘facts’ primarily from The Daily Mail. He’s the very stereotype of a Daily Mail reader. Brooker decribes it here.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jan/13/django-unchained-jack-whitehall-james-delingpole
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stogy says:
February 2, 2013 8:26 am at 8:26 am (UTC -4)
No. I have to disagree. He reads around. There’s the Express, the Sun, The Daily Star. The Evening Standard. News of the World… oops. er shhhh The Telegraph… I keed. I keed.
On a more serious note, Poosh’s Judith Butler piece was interesting (wrong, but interesting) and made me think there are in fact two Pooshs.
I actually used to work for slightly a left of centre (sp.) broadsheet in England. Funny thing was, the management was as right wing as they come. Right fascists they were. And they treated us with complete derision. I had an awful contract and was basically told (when they could remember) at the end of each month whether I could come in tomorrow. We were just producing product and targeting a particular segment of the audience. But they didn’t actually care about the readers or the writers or any of us at all. They just worried about circulation and cash flows – completely opposite to what they ran on the front page.
stogy says:
February 2, 2013 9:35 am at 9:35 am (UTC -4)
That’s a brilliant piece, CM! Thanks for sharing. The last but one paragraph had me just about falling off the chair:
Seattle Outcast says:
February 2, 2013 11:16 am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
Considering you get your “facts” directly from Daily Kos, who pulls them out of his ass, perhaps you shouldn’t be commenting?
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stogy says:
February 2, 2013 12:29 pm at 12:29 pm (UTC -4)
SO check back up the page. It’s been five years since I last looked at Daily Kos until Iconoclast posted a link. Given your advanced reading skills, perhaps it’s you who shouldn’t be… oh never mind. Just say whatever you like.
CM says:
February 2, 2013 1:57 pm at 1:57 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah I went there once back when Moorewatch Forums was still going.
Maybe SO found something at unskewedpolls (the very epitome of pulling stuff out of your arse) that says something different though….;-)
Seattle Outcast says:
February 2, 2013 4:20 pm at 4:20 pm (UTC -4)
And yet you take the Kos line of idiocy disguised as reality on a daily basis….
CM says:
February 2, 2013 8:41 pm at 8:41 pm (UTC -4)
And yet funnily enough you’ve never been able to demonstrate it because you’re always too busy with this sort of nonsense (when you’re not linking to unskewedpolls and setting yourself up for epic hurbris). ;-)
CM says:
February 2, 2013 8:43 pm at 8:43 pm (UTC -4)
Brooker is great. His most recent is also worthwhile…..
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jan/27/justin-bieber-pop-idols-never-die
Iconoclast says:
February 3, 2013 11:37 pm at 11:37 pm (UTC -4)
Of course you have…
Of course it does and of course it has…
Of course you don’t…
Do you know what “homicide” is? It is any instance of one human being killing another, including accidents and self-defense. If an increased presence of guns increases the rate of self-defense homicide, I’m all for it, and I don’t give a damn whether you concur.
Nice misdirection there, stogy, assuming that all cases of homicide are crimes. No, again, some cases are self-defense, and not crimes. Unfortunately, I couldn’t read the study and do any analysis, given that the link is bogus (it takes you to a generic “Press Releases” page, which does NOT seem to include your study).
stogy says:
February 4, 2013 2:59 am at 2:59 am (UTC -4)
Well it does. What do you want me to say? Do you think that you will automatically accept any study that confirms your cognitive bias while you reject anything that doesn’t.
Well why would you, when they don’t relate to levels of gun ownership?
Sorry about the misdirection. Here’s the full abstract:
In the actual paper, they discuss the possibility of reverse causation, that dangerous communities have higher gun ownership because they are more dangerous communities (i.e. greater need for defense), however:
This is also interesting, as it relates to higher levels of domestic violence uses of firearms in households:
I am not saying this study is the be all and end all. They could be completely wrong. But it does a better more honest job of analyzing data related to firearms homicides than the Kopel study above. This includes caveats, reservations, limitations, and an acceptance that correlation is not causation. The Kopel “study” is pure political propaganda which leaves all of that out, and anything else that might obscure its objectives.
Iconoclast says:
February 5, 2013 6:19 am at 6:19 am (UTC -4)
You seem to be doing exactly that, which is my point.
stogy says:
February 5, 2013 7:21 am at 7:21 am (UTC -4)
This is a pretty lame response because it doesn’t actually attack any of the substance that I have been arguing in this thread. I haven’t actually expressed a view on guns here and I am pretty sure I didn’t on the other threads (although I could be wrong). You might think you know what my view on guns is but I am pretty sure that you don’t.
My concern has been the quality or the evidence that is being used support pro-gun positions. And the studies are by and large rubbish – because of what they omit, they don’t even discuss arguments or ideas that might undermine their positions let alone offer reasons why those arguments are incorrect, they are strong on polemic and very weak on limitations and caveats, and they pull data out of their ass wherever it suits them. The Kopel study is one which does this. The Harvard study is another.
I am perfectly willing to accept that there might be good studies that show that lives saved from defensive use of weapons outweighs the number of deaths from domestic homicides. But you haven’t shown me any. And you haven’t shown me any reasons why the study I quoted from above is wrong.
That’s why your response is lame. You are no idiot and I reckon you can do better.
Iconoclast says:
February 10, 2013 1:13 pm at 1:13 pm (UTC -4)
“Evidence” is irrelevant — either I have the right to protect myself or I don’t . The COTUS says I do have that right, and I will not allow “studies” to be used as an excuse to take that right away. Nobody seems to bleed about “evidence” when it comes to a woman’s “right” to kill her unborn child, and there have been millions of unborn children killed in this country since the passage of Roe v Wade. Science is just as political and prone to corruption as any other human endeavor, so I am not terribly confident about placing my God-given rights into the hands of an unbelieving, skeptical “scientific” community.