Poll Fatigue

All of the Serious Conservative Blogs have been killing me with annoyed boredom over their obsession with polls. Not since high school have I given fewer fucks about the use for math. The only thing I can tell from pollsters like Rasmussen is that Romney is either going to win in a glorious landslide or suffer a heartbreaking but very close defeat.

For my part, I think Romney will win comfortably (for whatever that’s worth; look for a post on this over the weekend). But I get that from my own sense of the country’s direction and the behavior of the two campaigns. Is Obama really defending his record? Is he laying out a coherent 2nd Term plan beyond “I’m Not Romney and Not Me From the Past Four Years Either”?

Also, I look at the most meaningful quantifiable measurement: Money! One campaign is bringing it in and spending it in states that the other won comfortably last time. The other one is taking out loans and pulling ground operations out of certain states that it won in 2008.

Polls are great for filling a slow news day, but what exactly do we get out of it that we can’t see for ourselves? When I read the comments sections on some stories about polls, I want to laugh at the people who say, “Hey, I counted X Romney signs in my neighborhood and only X Obama signs here!” Not because they’re ignorant, but because I’ve also found that to be a reliable indicator of how a state will probably vote. In 2004, I travelled the country a lot on business. I noticed the signs and accurately predicted the way each state would go except Pennsylvania. In the end, my method was more effective in identifying the winner than Zogby. It doesn’t require the hard science and money that Zogby spent either.

There’s a lot of noise out there this week and will be until Election Day. Leave the polls out of this. What do YOU see coming? I don’t care if it’s a gut feeling. Who’s going to win?

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  1. Shiftuser

    The only poll that actually counts is not even the one that takes place at polling places on Nov. 6. The only poll that really counts is the one that takes place at the Statehouses with the delegates to the Electoral College.

    Nonetheless, the similarities between the conditions of the nation at the time of Reagan’s sweep in 1980 and now are so incontrovertible that I take the view that we have come through another socio/economic/national cycle.

    Look how a weak, international president permitted the U.S. to suffer loss of life and prestige at the hands of Middle East fundamentalist Islamists. Examine how the threat of inflation has diminished the well being and security of the American public. Observe how a communist nation flexes its military muscle, daring the U.S. to take any hard stance against it. See how the political fortunes of Jimmy Carter and Barak Obama match. Now look at Romney and Reagan, In 1976 Reagan was beat out for the nomination by Ford. Four years ago Romney was beat out by McCain. McCain was an establishment Republican, as was Ford. Reagan and Romney both were propelled to candidacy by the “rabble” of the Republican Party. Reagan appealed to and won blue collar Democrats, Romney appears to be succeeding there as well. The mutual comparisons go on.

    I am not saying that Romney is another Reagan, though I think he does have the potential to be…what I am saying is that the polls in 1980 pointed to a close race between Carter and Reagan…the polls were wrong. It would appear the cycle has come full circle.

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  2. Seattle Outcast

    Not even Reagan was “Reagan” when he took office, so we’ll see where Romney end up in four years. Even if he just turns out to be George HW Bush revisited it will be a vast improvement over Obama.

    Interestingly enough, the libtard left has taken upon itself of the job of destroying Reagan’s reputation over the last few years (when they aren’t trying to portray their latest Marxist candidate as the “next Reagan”). I think this is from their never accepting Reagan as anything to get worked up to begin with (I saw a bunch of Seattle liberals turn a funeral into a Reagan-bashing event just four years ago, they remembered all their old chants and protest signs – rather disturbing to be living so much in the 80’s), if not outright evil and roasting in whatever liberals consider to be a satisfying non-religious alternative to hell.

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  3. Kimpost

    Since I don’t see yard signs or hear street buzz, polls is what I base my predictions on.

    They are all I have. Well, I could include intrade etc, but since they mostly use polling themselves I guess that would almost be a circular argument. If it were sports, I’d bet against my favourites. I almost always do. But since it’s just politics I choose to stick with the closest thing to science we’ve got, polls.

    Obama will win but it will be much closer than 2008.

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