Post Debate Thoughts

It’s been two days; work and a nasty cold kept me from rolling out my thoughts on the debate. But I think it’s worth reviewing and discussing.

First, Obama got creamed. I think part of that is that he was caught off guard. Romney tacked sharply to the center, conceding policy ground on almost everything — regulation, Social Security, Medicare, Dodd-Frank. Obama was prepared to attack Primary Romney, the severe conservative. He was not prepared for the return of the moderate Massachusetts governor. And he was certainly not prepared for Romney to be so smooth and … well … presidential. Romney was on form, parrying all attacks, knowledgable about policy details and eschewing ideology. Obama simply was not ready for that, having convinced himself that Romney was an idiot that he would easily steamroll.

And he should have been prepared. Primaries are always played to the fringe; the election to the center. Obama, who shifted gears himself in 2008, should have known this. Romney won election in a heavily Democratic state; he knows how to play to the center. Romney was a consultant and an executive; he knows how to pitch.

Why wasn’t Obama prepared? There are a lot reasons for this but I think Megan McArdle’s breakdown is the best, particularly this point, which I also hashed out with Maggie McNeill on twitter:

The president lives in a bubble, and this president, in particular, has attracted a sort of worship that hasn’t followed any president since Kennedy, or maybe Reagan. (There’s a cult of Reagan now, but I don’t know whether that was true in 1984). You see it in things like the invitations to set up a wedding registry for donations to the Obama campaign, to send a Mother’s Day e-card celebrating the administration’s policy achievements, and of course, that infamous paragraph in the 2008 speech he gave after he locked up the Democratic nomination.

The fact that someone on his team wrote that line, and that no one else stopped him from delivering it, is remarkable. Even more remarkable is that four years later, many of his supporters do not grasp why so many people outside the Obama bubble–I’m tempted to say everyone who is not a die-hard supporter–find it hilariously narcissistic.

That is going to make it hard for the president to get good debate prep. With the time pressure he’s under, he needs to make every second of his debate prep count–which is to say, he needs an opponent who will absolutely pummel him. It seemed clear last night that they’ve been pitching him softballs, which is why he struck out on even completely obvious, predictible questions.

(I’ll speak to the Reagan thing: in Dinesh D’souza’s biography, he noted that Reagan was aware of the regard people had for him and, for that reason, rarely let his advisors know his opinion in advance of internal debates over policy. He feared that, once they knew where he stood, they would cant their arguments to support him.)

We’ve talked about the Cult of Personality before. You can see it the gnashing of teeth and rending of garments in the Left Wing commentariat over the debate performance (and their blaming of the useless Jim Lehrer). On MSNBC, it was like someone had died. Andrew Sullivan was practically in hysterics.

I think Obama has, on occasion, had a vague sense of this. But he hasn’t really made the kind of changes you need to make to keep the bubble from affecting your thinking. He seemed completely unprepared for Romney shifting his positions to the center. He was unable to mount even the most basic defense of his record. He seemed to think that just laying out his case would carry the day. He seemed to think that Romney would be as deferential and the audience as worshipful as … well, everyone around him.

(This Cult of Personality is, ironically, one of the reasons I would not be terribly distressed if Obama won, as long as the Republicans can get both houses. Having one of the most worshipped Presidents in recent history rendered impotent in his own White House would do a lot to crack the Cult of the Presidency and shift power back to Congress, where it belongs.)

Probably Obama’s only wise decision was to avoid attacking Romney on the 47% thing. While it enraged the liberal base, Obama clearly knew that Romney would be ready to parry it. Indeed, Romney today brought out the response line he never got to use. And it was not a bad one. I also suspect that Obama held back on attacking Romney because he knows the media will do it for him.

As for the substance of the debate, Reason has a lot of great analysis of the debate and why it was a nightmare for believers in limited government. Here for example, is a breakdown of the promises to reign in spending. Romney, in particular, was ludicrous, saying he was going to balance the budget while increasing defense and Medicare spending and not touching Social Security or Education. That’s … unpossible. Here is Nick Gillespie, pounding both candidates on education, immigration and Social Security.

In the end, I expect the debate will shift some voters to Romney but I doubt it will shift enough to decide the election. We’ve been enduring this for … well, for four years really. Most of the people who haven’t made up their minds can’t figure out how to operate a television anyway. But for the rest, I suspect Romney scooped them up. So there’s a thin hope that Obama will get tossed to the curb. And that’s better than things were a week ago.

Comments are closed.

  1. richtaylor365

    The bubble you speak of is of his own making, the bubble or arrogance, hubris, and yes, even a condescension for those not in awe of him. If he lost the debate, it was because the rest of the world is not smart enough to understand him. The very fact that someone would challenge him speaks to the mediocrity of those around him, it is their shortcomings, not his.

    Campaign events are fun, he gets to parade around and bathe in rabid adulation, but these debates are just cramping his style, he has a nation to run, and little patience for those that don’t get his magnificence.

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  2. Argive

    I think it’s unlikely that the polls are going to move more than a point or so towards Romney in the next few days. While Mitt probably picked up some undecided voters, I doubt Obama lost vote share. What tends to hurt candidates in these debates is not really overall performance, but gaffes that get replayed over and over again. Obama was flat the whole time, but never looked at his watch, sighed loudly or said that there was no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe. Remember, pretty much everybody agreed that Kerry beat Bush in the first ’04 debate (despite committing the cardinal sin of forgetting about Poland). Didn’t help him that much.

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  3. Xetrov

    I think it’s unlikely that the polls are going to move more than a point or so towards Romney in the next few days.

    The early polls out of Rasmussen show several points towards Romney in three swing states…in fact he’s leading where he was behind. Won’t know the nationals until Sunday.

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  4. elTim

    One thing that I worry about is that Romney did do things as governor with the democrats in congress. Having a moderate republican president agreeing with democrats in congress might be worse than an incompetent Obama and a republican congress (as you said). More gridlock!

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  5. Argive

    The early polls out of Rasmussen show several points towards Romney in three swing states…in fact he’s leading where he was behind.

    Yeah, I saw. I think Mitt will get a bounce, but I don’t think it will translate into a sustainable lead. Debates rarely help a lagging candidate by that much. And I take Rasmussen with a whole shakerful of salt after how badly they messed up in 2010.

    To be fair, Romney did tack to the center very well. So we’ll see what happens.

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  6. repmom

    Just me thinking out loud here, but –

    I can’t imagine anyone being undecided at this point. What do you need to know – that you don’t already know at this point – to make the decision about who you will vote for in a few weeks?

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  7. Argive

    I can’t imagine anyone being undecided at this point. What do you need to know – that you don’t already know at this point – to make the decision about who you will vote for in a few weeks?

    Absolutely. This is why I don’t think the debate moved the needle too much. Could be wrong, though.

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  8. Hal_10000 *

    I can imagine some people being undecided if they are unhappy with either candidate. But I have to think most of them are thinking third party.

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  9. ilovecress

    Some random thoughts:

    The ‘Undecideds’ that matter are not watching. The ‘low information voter’ doesn’t know who Romney is yet. The base is going to vote, and the swing you’ll get from actually persuading people in a wonky debate like this is minuscule. What matters in debates like this is the ‘fallout’ what the narrative is. Basically, the fuck ups. Romney won convincingly, but he really needed Obama to amke a soundbyte mistake.

    Remember that Romney is no longer pitching to you Hal – he’s got the vote of his base, so he doesn’t need to talk details, or actually make any sense. His pitch needs to be “I’ll keep all the good things you like, and get rid of the things you hate.” And that’s basically what we saw last night.

    I’ve been trying to work out what on earth team Obama’s strategy was last night. I don’t buy the bubble thing – whilst it may be true, the job of the campaign strategists is 100% to look outside that bubble. The only thing I can come up with is that team Obama played for the draw and tried to make sure there were no knockouts.Obama wasn’t going to ever ‘win’ the first debate, so make sure he didn’t lose it. Probably sensible, but not very….presidential.

    On the other hand team Romney played this brilliantly. Leaking the zinger stuff beforehand was genius – even if in hindsight it seems obvious.

    I don’t think this will have much of a bump, but it certainly energised both bases – which is the main thing. This election is going to come down to turnout.

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  10. Dave D

    You mean all I have to do to get CM to buy my bridge in the swamp is to become a liberal? No way!

    AMAZING how the only liars and cheats are on the right, ain’t it? If this were happening to a sitting Republican president, he’d be leading the outraged charge……..

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  11. richtaylor365

    Rich I’d recommend Michael Lewis’ Vanity Fair piece on Obama. It doesn’t match up with your narrative.
    http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2012/10/michael-lewis-profile-barack-obama

    Yeah, like I’m going to read a 9 page reach around describing what a great athlete Obama is, how he pets his dog twice a day, gives the misses a good night kiss every night, is really nice to the staff, oh, and likes sunsets and long walks on the beach. Any mention in that slurp up of the president bothering to read his security briefings on a daily basis?

    What parts specifically contradicts my “narrative”?

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  12. Argive

    You totally believe them, without question to the timing?

    Jobs reports always come out on the first Friday of the month. It was a coincidence. There is no evidence indicating that this one was rigged. I don’t even know how one would rig the jobs report. And these reports are often wildly off the mark over the short term. They get revised all the time after publication.

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  13. Mississippi Yankee

    Remember that Romney is no longer pitching to you Hal – he’s got the vote of his base

    ilovecress, that was one of the funniest things I’ve ever read on this site. At one point in Hal’s post I thought he was going to actually take his head out of Nick Gillespie’s lap and publicly endorse Obama (over Johnson) Thinking Hal is Romney’s base, PRICELESS

    And Hal, an Obama re-election, no matter the Senate and House make-up will still be a disaster. Those people are nothing more than friggin whores. And the people that put this ‘post turtle’ Obama in the WH know it. His re-election will be seen as a mandate to buy whoever needs buying and we will all just keep trudging away from the United States that our forefathers intended for this county. And I find it hard to believe that you are so naive not to see it. Which only leaves one other possibility…

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  14. Mississippi Yankee

    Hal, It may come as no surprise that Hitler has a little different take on the debate than you. But I’m quite confident you’ll agree with some of his points

    Hitler finds out Obama lost the debate

    Oh, and where’s the Friday Five? With the money we’re paying you we should get ‘on time delivery’

    JimK, when you said you’d “poke around” it made me wonder, should I put up my dukes or get a condom? Just kidding I LOVE YOU MAN!

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  15. Kimpost

    AMAZING how the job numbers suddenly jump exacatly 1 month before the election! That’s sick…..

    Not to mention, Dave D, that these incredible numbers appear right after Obama bombs in the debate.

    Quite amazing………..

    So, CM, you have no problem with those numbers? You totally believe them, without question to the timing?

    I can’t answer for anyone else, but yes, I basically believe that pollsters know what they are doing, and I reject all notions of grand conspiracies bumping job numbers – or market bounces for that matter. After all, the numbers aren’t coming from the administration.

    Argue like an adult by pointing out the number of people who have stopped looking for work, but put the conspiracies to rest. Or leave them to idiots. We all know there are plenty enough of them out there.

    On the post debate I think that Romney needed that debate. And the bounce may just be permanent. By winning the first he energized his base, and that energy might just win him the next two. That and his people who probably were a bit discouraged by the pre-debate polls (insert yet another moronic conspiracy here), now got the boost they needed to do the necessary hard work.

    Obama’s still the favourite in my book, but it will be close.

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  16. Kimpost

    P.S. JimK, as I can’t help noticing how you are poking around with the code. Could you add two things, if possible?

    1. Would be nice if the blockquote-tag included the name of the person you are quoting?
    1. Tag-buttons in the edit-post window would be great. Manually writing them isn’t the end of the world, but it’s close. :p

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  17. Section8

    Jobs numbers real, although likely to be adjusted some as Argive points out. From what I’ve seen, adjustments are usually made a quarter or two out all the time.

    My take. Romney should keep quiet for now, let Obama brag away because in the next debate ask Obama why he’s so excited about these numbers, they are crap.

    1) Unemployment is nearly 1.8% higher for this time period than Obama’s projections based on NO RECOVERY PLAN. That’s right, doing absolutely nothing would have provided better results based on his own projections. Hal has pointed this out many times over the last year or so as the Obama recovery has been lame, and still is.

    2) Romney should ask Obama why did you rush to spend nearly as much as both wars combined (wars which Obama points out was on a credit card) — why did you spend nearly as much as the cost of those wars at that time all in one shot to end up in a situation that is by your own projection WORSE than not spending the money at all? Money which was also on a credit card. What a waste.

    3) The jobs coming in are for the most part, part-time. This is our new grand future? Throwing huge piles of money out the door for part time work? Romney should point out if we want to drive ourselves to bankruptcy for mediocre results at best, and that’s the best you’re ever going to get, then vote for Obama again. He has the plan to do it. Of course when we end up like Spain and Greece, unemployment will rocket back up into the double digits, and we’ll lose all that great progress in getting those few new part-time jobs that would have cost us nothing to get anyhow.

    Obama’s going to point out and sell the idea that recovery has to start somewhere, and it looks like it is now. Romney’s response should be something similar to what kind of recovery is this? By Obama’s own projections it’s clear his policies of delayed it, not aided it, and any signs of job recovery is half assed at best. Basically if someone said they’d build you a 2600 SF house and it would be done in three years, and 3 1/2 years later you drive by the lot and all you see a partial wall has been framed, one that’s more the size for a 1600 SF hours, then yeah, the builder could argue that’s progress compared to the week before when it was just some 2X4s laying in an empty lot. A better and more obvious argument would be it’s incompetence on the part of the builder, I doubt anyone would say wow what a fantastic job compared to last week! In fact, they’d probably be suing the builder at this point.

    Let Obama brag, hopefully he does; if Romney states the case correctly about the “good news” being sold is nothing but bullshit especially in relation to the promises and projections, then he’ll be just fine,. Just because someone spends 50K on a rusted car built in 1985 doesn’t turn it into a brand new Porsche, and that’s what Obama has been selling. All it means is you’ve wasted 50K on a rusted car built in 1985 HOPING it will turn into a Porsche. Yeah, you still got a car none the less but was what you got worth it? Reality says that 50K was wasted and could have been put to far better use and with better results, reality says you’re now deeper in debt with nothing to show for it but some junk in your driveway. That’s the difference between an administration that relies on hope, and one that relies on reality.

    .

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  18. Seattle Outcast

    According to leftist talking heads, Obama’s problem was the “altitude” (Gore) and the fact that he had just smoked about a million dollars worth of weed (Maher).

    I agree with this – his head has been in the clouds for years, and you can never really trust a stoner to give up their weed completely…

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  19. Seattle Outcast

    The man has a very lofty opinion of himself, and it fell flat with the voters.

    This goes back to a very primary problem with Obama – he’s all puffed on his always being “the smartest man in the room”. He’s even said as much over the years, so CM, shut the fuck up in advance and save us all the ten seconds it will take to prove to you that he has done so.

    It also leads to his extremely thin skin on criticism: his “genius” is what others have told him, not what he’s ever proven to himself. Lacking any actual basis for such a “lofty opinion” of himself, deep down he knows that it’s total, undeserved bullshit. He can’t speak or formulate coherent thoughts without a teleprompter giving him a speech written by someone else, Jarrett basically does all his opinions for him and runs the Oval Office, and all of his great programs and goals are merely regurgitated ones from his mentors.

    This is why his own foreign policy of “I’m Obama, I heal the fucking world just by showing up” fell flat on it’s face when confronted with reality. And also why he refused to acknowledge it when it was obvious to the ENTIRE FUCKING WORLD what had happened. Hell, he’s still in denial three weeks later. It must be a total motherfucker trying to prove to yourself that you actually deserve the Nobel Peace Prize when you’ve managed to fuck up every attempt to justify it in the four years it was handed to you just for being a black man in the Oval Office. If I were Romney I’d toss that in his face at the next debate just to watch him lose it on national TV.

    There is no “President Obama” that is actually Barrack Obama – he’s just a sock puppet for others, and when you expose that he gets testy as all fuck. He knows that, literally, any other anonymous black person that could read a teleprompter well could have replaced him as long as they just went with the program. Hell, Morgan Freeman would done a better job, but he actually thinks for himself.

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  20. Hal_10000 *

    No, I don’t believe the jobs numbers are rigged. It would be very difficult to do. The main thing, I suspect, was a revision of numbers over the last year, which came from actual tax records against surveys. We also had some big upward revisions of previous jobs numbers. Revisions happen all the time. Obama’s first year was eventually revised down by 900,000.

    You can’t cherry pick when you believe the jobs numbers. You can’t have been complaining about how bad they were, then suddenly say they’re bullshit when you don’t like them.

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  21. Mississippi Yankee

    Argue like an adult by pointing out the number of people who have stopped looking for work, but put the conspiracies to rest. Or leave them to idiots. We all know there are plenty enough of them out there.

    Kimpost,
    Would Jack Welch be one of those idiots? Yanno The Jack Welch, captain of industry, former CEO of GE which by the way owns NBC and (P)MSNBC? The same Jack Welch that has publicly given Obungler several “atta bots” over the past 4 years.
    You must be a pretty fart smeller to put Mr. Welch in the idiot box.

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  22. Seattle Outcast

    The jobs report is extremely easy to rig: it’s already rigged in the way they set it up in that the chosen metric under-reports true unemployment from the start.

    There are a variety of methods to report employment: You can compare the number of people working against the population as a whole, those who are capable of being in the workforce, those that are actively looking for work, etc. There are easily close to a dozen employment metrics that economist use, and to get a real picture of the economy you have to examine several of them, not just the one commonly reported.

    The most common metric is to use the number of people that are actively looking for work, and this generally gives the most conservative number and looks the best for political purposes. Since it is used consistantly, it has some margin of accuracy when used month to month, but it really isn’t an true measure of actual employment in long-term economic recessions/depressions because people drop off as they stop looking for work and go live in their parent’s basement until the economy recovers, or they forgo their normal career to become under-employed because a small paycheck is better than no paycheck at all. Those people are still un/under employed and want to work their normal jobs, but aren’t counted as they “are no longer looking” for employement.

    The longer this shitty Obama recession continues, the more people will be taking under-employment or just stop looking, and the jobs report will marginally get better over time, but not accurately reflect reality.

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  23. Jim

    SO, add to that two factors: 1) even more lenient welfare requirements in regards to no longer needing to look for work to receive benefits and 2) the unemployment extensions are running out for a bunch of people, so they are being dropped from the rolls.

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  24. Mississippi Yankee

    DOL’s Solis Misleads CNBC Viewers on Job Revisions, Admin’s Willingness to Work With Congress

    In a Friday interview where the primary purpose was to give her an opportunity to defend her Bureau of Labor Statistics, Obama administration Department of Labor head Hilda Solis gave CNBC viewers the false impression that prior-month upward revisions to reported job additions were in the private sector (they were all government jobs), and falsely claimed, despite her boss’s refusal to do anything until after Election Day, that “Congress needs to work with us.”

    NewsBusted points out just how slimy the left has become and they do it every day

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  25. hist_ed

    One thing everyone needs to remember is when looking at poll number is that it is possible for people to change their minds. “Undecided voters” aren’t the only people up for grabs.

    If someone only watched network news and only saw Obama’s ads, they would think that Romney was a monster. He loves firing people, he sends jobs and cash overseas and he even killed some guys wife. I work with someone who told me that she couldn’t vote for Romney because he just is too mean. That’s not the guy who showed up to the debate. Romney was reasonable, smart, Knowledgeable and came across as a hell of a lot more caring than Obama. Add in a few ads about all those time Romney took the time to help people and you just might show that he’s a human being.

    I think the bubble theory is probably right. Now the Obama team is going to think they have to attack in the next debate. Obama can come across as amazingly condescending and arrogant when he is on the offensive (remember how he talked to McCain during the health care TV “negotiations”). If Obama comes out swinging and does so like an entitle prick and Romney keeps his cool, it might just nudge a few people from “I’ll vote for Obama” to “undecided”.

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  26. Kimpost

    Kimpost,
    Would Jack Welch be one of those idiots? Yanno The Jack Welch, captain of industry, former CEO of GE which by the way owns NBC and (P)MSNBC? The same Jack Welch that has publicly given Obungler several “atta bots” over the past 4 years.
    You must be a pretty fart smeller to put Mr. Welch in the idiot box.

    Yes, I’d put Welch into that crowd. Just like I’d put Donald Trump (who’s likely a pretty clever guy, given his success) into the insane birther crowd. People like that almost makes me wish that adults could be aborted.

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  27. Seattle Outcast

    SO, add to that two factors: 1) even more lenient welfare requirements in regards to no longer needing to look for work to receive benefits and 2) the unemployment extensions are running out for a bunch of people, so they are being dropped from the rolls.

    Unemployment extensions are a double-edged sword up here in Boeing land. I knew a bunch of laid-off aerospace engineers that were surviving off of them for two years or more while they popped around the Puget Sound area trying to locate another $100K/year job, which didn’t return until 787 production kicked in. And when Boeing started hiring 787 production people, the local pool of qualified aerospace works shrank to the point that bored housewives that don’t know a wrench from a screwdriver were getting hired.

    Of course, it also stopped them from considering other options (after all, it’s not as if they were going to lose the house or run out of food) such as moving to where the jobs were (Texas) at the time, changing careers out of aerospace, or downsizing their income until Boeing started hiring again by working for a smaller company. Most of them sat around on their ass for two years or more and took cooking lessons while their wife supported them.

    Of all of the those people, I only know one of them them that constantly looked for work, took short term jobs when they popped up, and looked at that unemployment check as something he was going to do without as long as possible. When everyone else was moaning about how “tough it is out there finding a job”, he and wife joined us for a week in Maui.

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  28. Poosh

    Well I was UBER wrong about Romney. And I overestimated Obama. Crumbs.

    I read somewhere that Obama consistently was bitchslapped across the room by Hilary Clinton, so why the f*ck are we surprised that a man who came out alive from debates with mother f*cking Newt Gingrich could take him?

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  29. CM

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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  30. CM

    This goes back to a very primary problem with Obama – he’s all puffed on his always being “the smartest man in the room”. He’s even said as much over the years, so CM, shut the fuck up in advance and save us all the ten seconds it will take to prove to you that he has done so.

    Every Presidential candidate is full of themselves, it’s a prerequisite to get to that level. They’re all narcissists. I have nbo doubt there is a decent correlation between how people view a President’s policies and how much of a narcissist they think they are.

    It also leads to his extremely thin skin on criticism: his “genius” is what others have told him, not what he’s ever proven to himself. Lacking any actual basis for such a “lofty opinion” of himself, deep down he knows that it’s total, undeserved bullshit.

    Yeah his life really has just been a complete failure. What a loser for not realising he’s a loser.

    He can’t speak or formulate coherent thoughts without a teleprompter giving him a speech written by someone else,

    Ahh, this takes me back to when Bush was President and everytime he made a verbal goof right-wingers would jump in and claim that failures to speak properly or formulate coherent thoughts were just irrelvant lefty distractions.

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  31. Mississippi Yankee

    Kimpost, this is a quote from the article you linked to:

    Later on MSBNC, Welch told host Chris Matthews: “I have no evidence to prove (the BLS numbers were manipulated). I just raised the question.” But he said: “You don’t think it’s coincidental that we’ve had the biggest job surge since 1983? These numbers defy logic.”

    Now this is a man that knows a little something about labor, and coincidentally has even advised our Buffoon-in-Chief. Yet you choose to cast him in the same mold as a “birther”. Rally?

    Any guilt I may have felt for the scorn I’ve heaped on you in the past appears to have been justified. Thank Dog I hadn’t lost any sleep due to that misplaced guilt.

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  32. CM

    Now this is a man that knows a little something about labor, and coincidentally has even advised our Buffoon-in-Chief. Yet you choose to cast him in the same mold as a “birther”. Rally?

    So it’s impossible for him to say stupid things?

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  33. Kimpost

    I’ll leave the number crunching to others, but note that Welsh offers no evidence. “Just raising questions” is sometimes used as an excuse for venting conspiracy theories.

    Brilliant men can say stupid things. Happens all the time. There’s something about conspiracy theories that attract us. Most of us are able to dodge the majority of them, but occasionally we fall for one or another. Spouting one on twitter in the heat of the moment might even be understandable. He should have apologized for his question and moved on though…

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  34. Xetrov

    5 point bump for Romney according to Gallup. Considering their skewed 2008 weighting, I think that puts Romney squarely in the lead.

    Good writeup from Brietbart.

    In 2008, President Barack Obama won the independent vote over John McCain by a margin of eight points, 52-44. This morning, a new Battleground Poll has Mitt Romney massacring Obama among indies by a whopping 16 points, 51-35.
    That’s a 24-point swing among independents since 2008, a group that makes up anywhere from a quarter to a third of voters, and yet Battleground still has Obama in the lead 49-48…?

    But if I’m skeptical of those bottom-line numbers, our journalist overlords who have chosen to palace guard instead of question will declare me a “truther.”

    The Battleground Poll also shows an 13 point enthusiasm gap in Romney’s favor. Only 73% of Obama’s supporters are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 86% of Romney’s supporters.

    But again, don’t question Battleground’s 49-48% outcome. In fact, don’t question anything anymore — or the media will question you and mock you as a “truther. ” This includes questioning our government about the release of counter-intuitive unemployment statistics very helpful to the president just 30 days out from the election.

    Though the media hasn’t yet decided it’s time for a Romney Comeback Narrative, and probably never will, even if he wins — there’s no question Romney is rebounding in every national and swing state poll.

    Nationally, Gallup has it all tied up among registered voters — with the president dangerously below 50 at 47%. Rasmussen uses the more reliable likely voter screen and has Romney up 49-47%.

    In the Real Clear Politics poll of polls, nationally Romney is only down .09%. A week ago he was down over 4 points.

    In Ohio, according to RCP’s poll of polls, Obama’s Ohio lead has shrunk to three — Virginia has Obama only up by 0.3. Florida and Colorado are tied.

    The good news for Romney is that we are now seeing polls from each of these states with the GOP nominee in the lead. The bad news for Obama is that in most of these swing state polls, he is not hitting 50.

    Well, actually the worst news for Obama is 85% of the calls made for this new Battleground Poll were made prior to Obama humiliating himself in last week’s debate.

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