As I have pointed out, we are sooner than later going to have another economic disaster, because the politicians that caused it not only didn’t fix it with a massive expansion of their power to influence which companies are protected by government and which ones can be taken down, and only made it worse, and others seem to agree. In fact it seems even the LSM now is feeling forced to report on that.
“There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner,” says hedge fund legend Mark Mobius, “because we haven’t solved any of the things that caused the previous crisis.”
What problem is that you ask? Well, it’s those shitty mortgages that never should have been issued, to people that were not qualified and thus couldn’t pay them back, which where issued, under threat of losing your FDIC insurance if you did not comply, as part of a 3 decade long attempt at social engineering a collectivist utopia.
Through quantitative easing efforts alone,” says Euro Pacific Capital’s Michael Pento, “Ben Bernanke has added $1.8 trillion of longer-term GSE debt and mortgage-backed securities (MBS).”
Think about that for a moment. The Fed’s entire balance sheet totaled around $800 billion before the 2008 crash, nearly all of it Treasuries. Now the Fed holds more than double that amount in mortgage derivatives alone, junk that the banks needed to clear off their own balance sheets.
“As the size of the Fed’s balance sheet ballooned,” continues Mr. Pento, “the dollar amount of capital held at the Fed has remained fairly constant. Today, the Fed has $52.5 billion of capital backing a $2.7 trillion balance sheet.
“Prior to the bursting of the credit bubble, the public was shocked to learn that our biggest investment banks were levered 30-to-1. When asset values fell, those banks were quickly wiped out. But now the Fed is holding many of the same types of assets and is levered 51-to-1! If the value of their portfolio were to fall by just 2%, the Fed itself would be wiped out.”
Get that? Our government now owns some $2.7 trillion of debt, much, if not all, of it bad debt, and has a measly $52 billion of capital behind it, leaving it leveraged by a ghastly 51–to–1 debt to asset ration. What is left out, to give you some perspective of how fucking insane and bad this is, is the fact that the Dodd-Frank bill capped banks at a 15-to-1 ratio. Our government carries more than three time the debt rated against their assets!
Worse yet, is the obvious fact that Dodd-Frank did nothing to deal with the fundamental problem that caused all this: being forced by government to give loans to unqualified people. The bill basically ignored this completely so the politicians could keep the same social engineering lending requirements that caused the problem in the first place, around. So in the current clime where there is pressure to make banks loan again, as soon as banks actually meet that 15-to-1 ratio, they open themselves to being forced to do more of the same or risk being accused of discriminating. And the whole game starts all over.
Now couple all of that with the horrible state of affairs of the European banking system, which is basically using buckets to drain water from a sinking ship with a gash the size of the one inflicted on the Titanic by an iceberg, and you can see that things look bleak. That’s why we get things like:
“Unless the euro zone debt crisis is resolved in a timely and orderly manner, the broad credit outlook for the U.S. banking industry could worsen,” the New York-based rating company said yesterday in a statement. Even as U.S. banks have “manageable” exposure to stressed European markets, “further contagion poses a serious risk,” Fitch said, without explaining what it meant by contagion.
Here is the scary part. None of the Eurocrats in Brussels have the foggiest idea on how to solve this. Don’t be fooled into thinking otherwise. All they are doing is more of the same Keynesian nonsense in an attempt to keep the doomed EU together. The French and German banks are stuck between a rock and a hard place, because they have so much money lent to the troubled members of the PIGS – Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain – that any one of those not paying back 100% of what they owe will send them into the abyss. And those that are honest don’t even believes that Greece, where the people have gone bonkers because they now have to wait till they are 60 to retire or are being told they will get less “free stuff” and are up in arms, can pay a fraction of what they owe, back. Those that play the odds favor the EU falling apart. The fall of the big European nanny state is going to hammer us.
Running out of other people’s money, sucks, but we better wake up to that reality or Team Blue, which thinks that they can recreate Greece here, but somehow magically without all the trouble that comes with that socialist utopia, will seal our doom. Maybe that’s the plan anyway. Nobody can be as inept as these people have been and continue to be on purpose, and survive this long. The universe can’t be that cruel.